ACT Research is once again raising a familiar red flag: the driver shortage narrative is back — and this time, it’s already starting to move rates.
After four years without a true shortage, the firm says a combination of regulatory changes and constrained fleet growth has tipped the market into a tighter capacity environment, with early signs pointing to stronger freight rates ahead.
“Spot truckload rates have been rising significantly for several months driven by several factors, but we see the return to driver shortage as a critical factor as the industry prepares for Roadcheck,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT.
According to ACT’s latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook, the industry has moved out of a prolonged bottoming cycle and into an early tightening phase — where capacity constraints begin to push pricing upward.
ACT’s Driver Availability Index dropped 4.8 points in March to 35.0, down from 39.8 in February, a level that historically signals tightening conditions. Denoyer noted previous rate upcycles began when the index fell below 40.
New U.S. nondomicile CDL rules that took effect in mid-March are already having an impact, shrinking the available driver pool and accelerating the tightening trend, according to the report.
“This is the third driver shortage we’ve seen in the past decade,” Denoyer said, adding that reduced driver supply is now a key factor behind strengthening rates.
Equipment dynamics are compounding the issue. Class 8 truck sales have been running below replacement levels for more than a year, limiting fleet growth just as demand stabilizes. Looking ahead, ACT expects rising equipment costs tied to 2027 emissions regulations to further constrain capacity.
“Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates,” Denoyer said.
Credit: Source link
