Overall cross-border freight was buoyed by computer-related freight coming out of Mexico in November, an all-too-familiar scenario that has defined North American freight for most of last year.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at nearly $83 billion was hauled across the borders in November 2024. That was a slight increase of only 0.4% compared to November 2023 but a decrease of 6.5% from the previous month.
November’s year-to-year increase continued sustained growth that began nearly four years earlier. Trucking freight across North America had been trending upward since November 2020. Only four decreases had occurred between then and September 2024, three of which happened within the previous 12 months.
Cross-border freight hauled by trucks across the U.S. northern border sank by 10% compared to November 2023. However, the drop in Canadian freight was offset by an 8.5% increase at the southern border, largely the result of another boost in computer-related freight.
The top three truck commodities at the northern border were computers/parts ($5.3 billion, down 11%), vehicles ($4.3 billion, down 21%) and electrical machinery ($2.6 billion, up 2%). At the Mexican border, top commodities included computers/parts ($12.4 billion, up 32%), electrical machinery ($11.1 billion, up 6%) and vehicles ($7 billion, up 2%).
As seen throughout most of 2024, November’s cross-border report reflects a year-long trend of a booming trucking freight market at the southern border, driven by year-to-year increases of at least 20% in computer-related freight every month since April.
Updated data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics show that the number of trucks coming in from Mexico has been steadily increasing since 2009, surpassing the number of trucks coming from Canada around 2017.
In its State of Retail report, fleet management technology company Motive points out that retailers are moving nearshoring to Mexico due to its “shorter lead times, lower tariffs and to reduce the risks associated with other global supply chains.” Motive predicts continued growth at the southern border in 2025.
“Retailers are likely to further distance themselves from the just-in-time model, opting for higher inventory-to-sales ratios, which are predicted to climb above 1.3 by the end of 2024 and remain high throughout 2025,” the report states. “Meanwhile, imports from Mexico are expected to keep rising. Cross-border trucking activity will peak in early 2025.”
Uber Freight’s fourth quarter market update and outlook also recognizes a surge in nearshoring in Mexico. However, the report does warn about “geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties.”
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on Mexican exports if it does not address drugs and migrants entering the United States through the southern border.
By weight, cross-border freight hauled by trucks was down 1% compared to the previous year and plummeted by 14% compared to October. Between July 2022 and September 2023, truck freight by weight was on a downward trajectory. However, 2024 saw growth in six months through November.
Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (down 4%), mineral fuels (up 5%) and paper (up 0.3%). Vehicle freight was among the top commodities at the northern border for much of 2024. However, significant decreases over several months pushed it down to fifth place. In Mexico, the top three commodities were vehicles (down 3%), edible vegetables/roots (up 6%) and computer-related machinery/parts (up 8%).
Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached nearly $131 billion in November 2024. That was virtually unchanged compared to the previous year but a decrease of 6% compared to October 2024. Canadian freight was down 5% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight rose by 5%.
Overall cross-border freight suffered a seven-month losing streak beginning in March 2023. Afterward, North American freight experienced a rebound, with only five months experiencing year-to-year losses in the 14 months between October 2023 and November 2024.
By weight, freight crossing the borders decreased by 5% compared to November 2023 and by 6% compared to October 2024.
In November 2024, cross-border freight was lower for all transportation modes except trucks and airfreight (up 7%): pipeline (down 25%), vessel (down 7%) and rail (down 6%). LL
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