Truck orders were weaker month to month, but stronger year over year, according to the latest data. The spot market strengthened and a new survey suggests carriers are increasingly optimist about the year ahead.
December truck orders ‘slightly outperform’
Class 8 truck orders sunk to 31,900 units in December, according to preliminary data from FTR, down 7% from November but up 23% from last December.
It was a slight outperformance from seasonal expectations. Full-year orders for 2024 were up 11% year over year, the industry forecaster announced, totaling 279,872 units.
“While OEMs experienced an overall month-over-month decline in order activity for December, most OEMs performed above seasonal expectations as net orders maintained relatively high levels for what is typically a softer order month. There also wasn’t any notable difference in vocational segment month-over-month order movement performance versus how on-highway performed this month,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“We continue to watch the ongoing discussions and developments related to President-elect Trump’s plans to impose immediate tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China as more than 40% of Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are built in Mexico. Tariffs could significantly disrupt supply chains and raise production costs, compounding disruptions already anticipated due to EPA 2027 NOx regulations. Fleets may adjust order and retail demand strategies in response.”
ACT Research reported 36,500 orders, down 2.1% month over month but up 39% year over year.
“Strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity as the industry looks to 2025,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “While down from November, orders were up nearly 39% compared to last December’s performance. With the largest seasonal factor of the year, seasonal adjustment is always unkind in December.”
As for medium-duty, he added, “Classes 5-7 orders continue their consistent, if slowly deflating, trajectory into still historically elevated truck and bus backlogs. Preliminary December NA Classes 5-7 orders fell 40% year over year to 16,800 units, down 300 units or -1.9% from November and the third weakest net order tally of 2024.”
Growing optimism among fleets
A new survey from Truckstop suggests carriers are increasingly optimistic. More than 90% of carriers said they’re confident they’ll achieve their professional goals, with nearly half expecting business improvements.
Nearly 500 carriers responded to the survey.
“The survey results highlight carriers’ resilience, ambition, and determination to enhance their businesses and overall quality of life,” said Kendra Tucker, chief executive officer, Truckstop.
Most carriers – 91% — said they feel optimistic about achieving their primary professional goals this year, with 54% claiming to be “extremely optimistic.” Only 3% of responding carriers said they plan to leave the industry in 2025.
Meanwhile, more respondents said they plan to make commitments to health, wellness and self-improvement. Twenty-two per cent said they plan to spend more time at home in the coming year.
This year, 77% of responding fleets said they’ll make equipment upgrades.
Spot market van rates increase
Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported strengthening spot market rates for van and refrigerated fleets for the week ended Jan. 3. In fact, dry van spot rates reached their highest levels since the end of 2023, while flatbed rates fell slightly to their lowest levels since July 2020.
Truckstop suggested severe weather this week could push spot rates upward and disrupt freight flows. The Market Demand Index rose to 67.1 as load availability growth outpaced truck availability.
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