The U.S. average retail price for a gallon of diesel fuel soared 96.2 cents from a week ago to $4.859 a gallon, the Department of Energy reported March 10.
With the war in Iran in its second week and oil prices crossing $110 a barrel for the first time since 2022 before falling back near $80, DOE’s Energy Information Administration on March 10 also boosted its full-year price projection for diesel by 20.1% from its previous projection.
The weekly increase in retail diesel left the average price $1.277 higher than the same week a year earlier, and 85.5 cents above its 2024 level. EIA’s figures show the price spiked more than 90 cents across the entire United States, and the average topped $6 a gallon in California.
A separate survey from GasBuddy found the U.S. average price of diesel rose 85.9 cents over the past week to $4.599 per gallon. Texas, Kansas, and South Dakota had the lowest average diesel prices at just below $4. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said diesel could still rise another 35-75 cents nationwide as the Middle East conflict continues.
Meanwhile, EIA said in its latest energy outlook released on March 10 that diesel will average $4.12 a gallon in 2026, up 69 cents, or 20.1%, from its previous report just one month earlier.
The retail average will be $4.54 in the second quarter, before falling to $4.12 in the third quarter and $3.92 in the fourth quarter. In 2027, the average is projected to be $3.78 a gallon, up from $3.47 in EIA’s outlook a month ago.
“We make the assumption in our modeling that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil production in the Middle East to fall further in the coming weeks. We assume this shut-in production will gradually ease as transit through the Strait resumes,” EIA said.
Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil — about 20% of the world’s oil — are typically shipped every day through the Straight of Hormuz.
EIA also reported the U.S. retail gasoline average was $3.502 a gallon as of March 9, up 48.7 cents from a week ago and 43.3 cents from the same week in 2025. It also raised the 2026 forecast for retail gasoline to $3.34 a gallon, up 14.7% from its projection of $2.91 a month ago. The average will fall to $3.18 in 2027.
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