The News About EVs Was Bright But Now The Future Is So Uncertain

With recent good news about EVs, we have every right to feel optimistic.

• We’re ready to celebrate a tipping point for the dominance of gas cars on the road — as current vehicles are removed from service and the comfort zone with EVs increases, the goal of 30% new EV sales is within reach in Colorado and Washington State by 2026.
• Used EVs are forecast to rebuild their resale value, contributing to a more robust EV marketplace.
• The average transaction price of a new EV in the US has gone down by 7.4% since January 2023.
• EVs have even increased utility revenues more than they have increased utility costs, leading to downward pressure on electric rates for EV-owners and non-EV owners alike.

Clearly, the transition to electric mobility contributes to the reduction of environmental pollution, which is also beneficial for public health and helps to reduce fossil energy consumption. Then why does the future for EVs so tenuous?

Barriers continue to exist that hinder mass consumer understanding and acceptance of EVs, brought to you in the US by Project 2025.

Why EVs are on the Rise in Europe

The transportation sector is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and accounts for nearly 45% of global oil demand, primarily due to the widespread use of internal combustion engine vehicles. Passenger cars account for nearly three-quarters of the sector’s emissions.

A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), a comprehensive life-cycle analysis of all major powertrain types, reinforces earlier findings: only battery electric cars can deliver the large-scale emission cuts needed to address Europe’s most polluting transport mode. The study calculates that battery electric cars sold today in Europe emit nearly four times less GHGs over their lifetime than gasoline cars.

The ICCT research reveals that battery electric cars sold today produce 73% less life-cycle GHG emissions than their gasoline counterparts — even when factoring in production. The result is a 24% improvement over original 2021 estimates. In contrast, other powertrains, including hybrids and plug-in hybrids, show only marginal or no progress in reducing their climate impacts.

That means Europe’s electricity mix is getting cleaner, and, with it, the climate advantage of EVs is growing.

Of course, that data emerges from the European automotive marketplace.

US News about EVs Continues to Be Skeptical

Policy support for EVs in the US has changed significantly over the last year. Significantly, elements of the Inflation Reduction Act are being removed or threatened, and California’s ability to set its own emissions standards is weaker than it has been in the last 30 years.

Most debilitating is the sweeping tax and budget legislation approved by the US Congress that will eliminate $7,500 tax credits for buying or leasing new electric vehicles and a $4,000 used-EV credit by September 30. Those incentives sparked EV sales in recent years, and it will take savvy automobile consumers to take advantage of the credit before it expires. US businesses will suffer as well, since providing production tax credits and then pulling them so quickly afterward infuses instability into the marketplace — factories require incredible amounts of long-term planning and capital investment.

“Throwing that work and investment into the trash will make companies question whether to take a risk in the States again,” muses CleanTechnica editor, Zachary Shahan. “The US is becoming a less predictable, less stable, less trustworthy market for businesses with these coming changes, especially in the EV and solar power sectors.”

So, on one hand, it’s hard to celebrate that, by the end of 2023, thirteen states and Washington, DC had accrued more than 10% of auto sales as electric.

Then again, hope springs eternal.

• EVs now draw upon numerous technological advancements made possible over the last decade.
• Emissions reduction is a powerful mechanism that is increasingly informing consumer attitudes about and perceptions toward EVs.
• The potential impact of the total cost of ownership (TCO) has become an important factor for consumers as they consider an EV for their next vehicle.
• EVs technologies and business models are reshaping market structures, technological paradigms, and consumer behavior while markedly reducing environmental impact.

A Clash of Interests in the Automotive Marketplace

Fossil fuel interests, however, continue to loom heavily in the automotive futures background. Differences between efficient prices and retail fuel prices are large and pervasive, says the IMF. For example, 80% of global coal consumption was priced at below half of its efficient level in 2022. Full fossil fuel price reform could reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to an estimated 43% below baseline levels in 2030 (in line with keeping global warming to 1.5-2oC), while raising revenues worth 3.6% of global GDP and preventing 1.6 million local air pollution deaths per year.

Of course, the global political will to promote such fossil fuel price reform is nearly nil. Fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion in 2022, or 7.1% of GDP. Explicit subsidies (undercharging for supply costs) have more than doubled since 2020 but comprise only 18% of the total subsidy — 60% is due to undercharging for global warming and local air pollution.

As CleanTechnica’s Steve Hanley outlines, the Trump administration has freed manufacturers to build cars and trucks that spew more fine particulates, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon dioxide in their wake. Fracking companies no longer have to worry about turning aquifers into toxic waste because the US has an “energy emergency, which has given the fossil fuel companies a license to run roughshod over any and all environmental restrictions.”

EV adoption rates are influenced by a wide range of factors, including individual level demographics, attitudes, lifestyle preferences, perceptions of EVs capabilities, and infrastructure availability. Military action in the Middle East artificially heightens oil prices, trickling down — as always — to the consumer. High gas prices continues to spark EV consumer interest. Such global confluences have led recent EV analysts to point to five themes evolving for EVs for the remainder of 2025.

1. EV sales are at a record high, while combustion vehicle sales continue to fall.
2. EVs are increasingly global.
3. Low cost charging is a key enabler.
4. Battery innovation is making EVs increasingly desirable. Leading batteries can charge more than halfway in five minutes, and more progress could be on the horizon with safer long-range solid-state chemistries.
5. EVs are reducing oil demand at an exponential rate.
6. More and more charging points are being built, with localized mixes of home, workplace, and public chargers.
7. Electric buses, trucks, and freight handling equipment have proven to be less expensive to operate and maintain compared to traditional diesel-powered equipment.

The US may seem to be slipping backwards with transportation electrification, but the rest of the world has recognized the benefits of electric power and is embracing the transition to electric vehicles. The EV revolution is happening, with or without the US.