Freight coming in and out of Mexico and Canada stabilized in March after companies frontloaded inventories, supplies and materials in February ahead of tariffs that were set to begin in April.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at more than $94 billion was hauled across the borders in March. That was a 9.5% increase compared to March 2024 and a gain of 9% from the previous month.
North American trucking freight tends to go up month-to-month in March. This year’s 9% increase is relatively modest compared to the past 10 years, when the average monthly increase in March has been 13.5%.
With a two-month reporting delay, the most recent cross-border freight numbers do not reflect President Donald Trump’s latest actions on tariffs. Trump initially issued 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. However, he then delayed the new tax on North American goods for 30 days, limiting any effects on cross-border freight in February.
Those tariffs went into effect briefly on March 4. On March 5, a one-month exemption was granted for automakers. The next day, another one-month delay was given for a wide range of imports. Reciprocal tariffs were scheduled to begin on April 2.
February’s year-to-year increase expanded on an upward trajectory that began in November 2020. Only four decreases occurred between then and September 2024, three of which happened within the seven-month period between December 2023 and June 2024.
Cross-border freight hauled by trucks across the U.S. northern border increased by 3% compared to March 2024. At the southern border, trucking freight shot up by 14.5%.
All but two of Canada’s top 10 truck commodities experienced year-to-year increases, with “special classification provisions” and measuring/testing instruments freight down 10% and 4%, respectively. The top three commodities were computer-related parts (up 6%), vehicles (up 8.5%) and electrical machinery (up 7.5%).
At the Mexican border, the top five commodities saw yearly increases, but the next four commodities – edible fruits/nuts, furniture, iron/steel and edible vegetable/roots – all experienced a drop. The top three commodities were computer-related parts (up 43%), electrical machinery (up 11%) and vehicles (9%).
Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (up 19%), paper (up 7%) and vehicles (down 14%). In Mexico, the top three commodities were edible vegetables/roots (down 7%), vehicles (down 0.1%) and computer-related parts (up 11%).
Loaded truck container border crossings increased by 6% compared to last March and rose by 13% compared to February. Year-to-year, 6% more loaded truck containers crossed the northern border, while there was a 5% increase coming in and out of Mexico.
Freight Transportation Research Associates’ (FTR) March Trucking Conditions Index inched up to a positive reading. Looking at volumes, rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices and financing, a positive score indicates optimistic conditions. While March’s index was more neutral, FTR’s forecast for trucking conditions was more pessimistic in anticipation of the effects of tariffs.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, acknowledged that freight volume was strong in the first quarter and “unusually stable” in March, likely the result of companies frontloading imports ahead of tariffs. However, he warned of more volatility in the coming months as businesses “respond to U.S. trade policy shifts.”
“The recent short-term agreement between the U.S. and China greatly reduces the potential near-term hit to freight volumes, but we still expect uncertainty and higher costs for consumers to be drags on the economy and freight,” Vise said in a statement. “One wild card we will watch closely is whether renewed scrutiny concerning truck drivers’ English language skills and non-domicile CDLs will affect the driver supply significantly.”
Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached nearly $145 billion in March. That was an increase of 8% compared to the previous year and of 10% compared to February. Canadian freight was up 4% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight rose by 13%.
By weight, freight crossing the borders decreased by 3% compared to March 2024 but increased by 9% compared to the previous month.
In January, cross-border freight was up for all modes except vessel (down 10%) and rail (down 0.6%). Airfreight experienced the largest increase (35.5%), followed by trucks (9.5%) and pipeline (6%). LL
Credit: Source link
