While United States-bound retail container imports are expected to be up for the first time in six months, it is not expected to be a lasting trend, at least until later in the spring, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was recently issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
For November, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report, came in at 2.02 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which marked a 2.3% sequential decline and a 6.5% annual decline.
Port Tracker issued projections for December and the subsequent months, including:
- December, at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6% annually (the report said November and December are traditionally slow, but the annual declines are due, in part, to imports in late 2024 being elevated due to port strike concerns, at that time, coupled with many retailers importing cargo earlier than usual in 2025, in order to avoid tariffs);
- January, at 2.11 million TEU, down 5.3% annually (which would be its first sequential gain in since July 2025, with retailers bringing in merchandise in advance of the Lunar New Year in Asia next month);
- February, at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% annually;
- March, at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4% annually;
- April, at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1% annually;
- May, at 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2%m which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025)
Port Tracker stated that the first half of 2025, at 12.53 million TEU, increased 3.7% annually, with calendar year 2025 expected to be down 0.4% annually, coming in at 25.4 million TEU.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that on the heels of what he called “chronic uncertainty” related to U.S. tariffs that 2026 U.S.-bound imports are expected to remain impacted by trade policy.
“The impact [of tariffs] on container imports to the U.S. in 2025 was a roller coaster as shippers front-loaded their purchases during ‘tariff windows’ to ensure sufficient inventory levels existed and held off when tariffs were in effect.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” wrote Hackett. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
Credit: Source link
