Imports at the nation’s major container ports should continue at elevated levels this month despite a strike that briefly shut down operations from Maine to Texas last week, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected. The strike wasn’t without impacts – retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”
Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike at East and Gulf Coast container ports on October 1 after their contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. But the strike lasted only three days, ending after a tentative agreement was reached on a wage increase and a short-term contract extension until January 15. The move came after NRF led a coalition in asking President Biden to use “any and all authority” to end the strike.
Ports handled unusually large volumes of cargo beginning this spring as importers brought in goods early because of the potential for a strike and shifted a number of vessels to the West Coast, where dockworkers are represented by a different union.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in August, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was up 0.9% from July and up 19.3% year over year for the highest volume since the record of 3.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year over year. October is forecast at 2.12 million TEU, up 3.1% year over year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago, and the strike did not appear to affect national totals.
November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year over year, and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023. January 2025 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8% year over year, and February 2025 is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com
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