Truck buyers remain cautious about adding new vehicles to their fleets, but preliminary data shows a solid bounce in July compared to June numbers.
Still, they remain well off traditional norms. And the spot market strengthened last week, in line with seasonal expectations.
Class 8 orders bounce, but remain off normal levels
Preliminary net Class 8 truck orders totaled 12,700 units in July, according to FTR, which was up 42% from June’s abysmal total but down 7% year over year. That’s seven straight months of year over year decreases.
Orders were also well off July’s 10-year average of 19,974 units, FTR reported, reflecting continued caution among fleet buyers.
Order weakness was most pronounced in the on-highway segment.
“Ongoing tariff volatility and broader economic and truck freight market sluggishness continue to negatively impact the Class 8 market, driving a substantial 30% year over year decline in year-to-date net orders,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
“Class 8 market uncertainty is further elevated due to the potential imposition of Section 232 tariffs specifically targeting Classes 4-8 trucks, tractors, and related components. The lack of clarity regarding potential Environmental Protection Agency revisions to 2027 NOx emissions standards adds to the uncertainty. As a result, many fleets are delaying commercial vehicle equipment investments. Meanwhile, continued record-high inventory levels are placing additional downward pressure on Class 8 production.”
Classes 5-8 net orders totaled 26,200 units, down 10% year over year, according to ACT Research.
“While the economy continues to grow — expanding 3% quarter over quarter in Q2, — uncertainty, elevated equipment prices, and emerging signs of economic softness are all weighing on commercial vehicle demand,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.
“Solid freight generating segments like housing and manufacturing are sluggish, with manufacturers shedding labor the past three months. Consumers continue to spend, but tariff-related price increases and a weakening labor market may weigh on goods spending in the near term.”
ACT reported Class 8 orders of 13,300 units, down 1.9% year over year, and Classes 5-7 orders of 13,000, a 17% y-o-y drop.
Spot market improves
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence report the Market Demand Index last week reached its highest level in three weeks.
“Broker-posted spot rates in the Truckstop.com system for dry van and refrigerated equipment increased for the first time in four weeks during the week ended Aug. 1, although the gains were small,” Truckstop.com reported.
“Flatbed spot rates declined for the fourth straight week, but the decrease in the latest week was marginal. The moves for all three equipment types (reefer, van, and flatbed) were in line with seasonal expectations for the beginning of August, as van rates tend to stabilize while flatbed rates continue to fade.”
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