There are finally signs emerging of the anticipated EPA27 pre-buy, but it’s coming from vocational truck buyers and not those in the on-highway segment.
And while the U.S. spot market isn’t exactly on fire, it’s showing signs of seasonal predictability and equilibrium.
Vocational truckers leading pre-buy?
There are finally signs truck buyers may be queuing up to buy new Class 8 trucks ahead of costly EPA27 emissions standards, but it’s coming from vocational truckers and not the on-highway segment.
That, according to ACT Research, which has noted continued healthy buying activity among vocational truck buyers. ACT however noted the GHG Phase 3 standard slated for 2028 and beyond will “ultimately find its way to the dustbin or otherwise be heavily rewritten.”
“Amid healthy demand, strong build, and already high inventories, the industry’s capacity to sell finished products to end users could well be the limiting factor for production in 2025,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
“With tractor demand strength more suspect in early 2025, vocational truck production should continue at high levels at the start of the year. Vocational build per day rose to a level not seen since 2006, at 513 units per day in November, and blew past that level, to 537 units per day, in December.”
Body builder constraints, however, could prove a chokepoint for production, ACT noted.
Truckload spot market freight steady in January: DAT
DAT Freight & Analytics reported spot market freight activity was steady in January, but uncertainty looms. It credits the month’s strength to shippers replenishing holiday inventories and pulling forward imports ahead of potential tariffs.
DAT’s Truckload Volume Index in January saw van volumes jump 6%, reefer 7% and flatbed 8%, compared to December.
Rates rose modestly in January, with van climbing 4 cents per mile to $2.16 (all figures USD), reefer 8 cents to $2.55 and flatbed 5 cents to $2.44.
“January was a month of mixed indicators, with shippers rebalancing inventories as they typically do while responding to the uncertainty of tariffs, higher fuel costs, and unusually bad weather,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics.
Contract rates reflected a “market in equilibrium” the company said. Contract van rats were $2.41 (up 2 cents from December), reefer rates $2.76 (up 2 cents), and flatbed rates $3.07 (up a penny).
The DAT iQ New Rate Differential (NRD), which measures changes in the contract market by comparing rates entering the market to those exiting, was 1.4% in December. A positive NRD signals a tightening market, while a negative NRD suggests the market is softening.
“The van NRD has been positive for four straight months and trending higher for almost two years,” Adamo said. “It may not feel like it, given last month’s business and trade volatility, but spot and contract freight data reflected a market in equilibrium in January.”
Rates declined in most recent week
The week ended Feb. 7, however, saw lower rates on the U.S. spot market, according to Truckstop and FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The declines were in line with seasonal expectations, but dry van rates reached their lowest levels since mid-November and reefer rates their lowest since April. Flatbed rates were more stable.
“The modest increase in load postings coupled with a notable decrease in truck postings resulted in a Market Demand Index of 77.9, the highest level in three weeks,” the companies reported. “Total market volume was up slightly year over year solely due to flatbed as dry van and refrigerated load postings have lagged comparable 2024 levels for most of the year so far.”
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