Storm Erin has exploded into the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 season.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced the development at 10:14am ET on Friday, warning that the hurricane is set to pass near or north of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.
Erin, which has been gathering strength in the Atlantic all week, is projected to become a Category 4 storm by Monday at the latest as it approaches Bermuda.
Meteorologists warned that the hurricane would bring dangerous surf and coastal flooding to millions in the US, from the Carolinas to New England.
Spaghetti models predict the hurricane will continue to move west before taking a sharp curve north, where it could threaten the US East Coast with massive swells.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned: ‘Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore.
‘These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away.’
While the NHC is uncertain about Erin’s impact on the US, meteorologist Noah Bergen shared a new projection for the next eight days, showing it taking a turn northwest and unleashing hurricane-force gusts over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Erin officially reached hurricane status Friday morning on August 15, hours ahead of earlier projections
Current projections show that Hurricane Erin will become a Category 3 storm by Saturday as it passes the Caribbean
‘Example why we need to stop writing off Erin having some impact on the US — a recurve remains the expectation, but how close that recurve happens is still very much an open-ended question,’ Bergen shared on X.
The predicted path to North Carolina is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model.
Known for its high accuracy, the ECMWF model utilizes advanced dynamical forecasting techniques, integrating real-time data such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), atmospheric pressure patterns and satellite imagery.
This model is widely respected for its ability to predict hurricane trajectories and intensity up to 10 to 15 days in advance, making it a key tool for tracking Erin’s potential recurve path and its impact on the US East Coast.
AccuWeather forecasters said Erin is likely to quickly ramp up into a Category 3 storm by Saturday, bringing sustained winds of more than 110 mph as it passes Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend.
‘After passing the Leewards and Puerto Rico during the first part of this weekend, Erin is forecast to track northeast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later this weekend to early next week,’ meteorologists said.
They projected that Erin should reach its peak Monday afternoon, as its winds surpass 130 mph, entering Category 4 status for at least a day as it begins to turn towards Bermuda.
‘Be vigilant if you’re going to an East Coast beach next week. Be aware of rip current warning signs and only swim in areas with lifeguards on duty,’ DaSilva added in a statement.
Although the NHC remains unsure of Erin’s effects on the US, meteorologist Noah Bergen released an eight-day forecast indicating the storm could bring hurricane-strength gusts to Cape Hatteras
The East Coast should start feeling the effects of the storm by the beginning of next week.
Meteorologists said the first states Erin would likely hit are North Carolina and Virginia, where beachfront properties could be at risk.
Rough surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are all expected to be issues for residents and vacationers in the area as soon as Monday or Tuesday.
Erin, which has been gathering strength in the Atlantic all week, is projected to become a Category 4 storm by Monday at the latest as it approaches Bermuda
Spaghetti models show that Erin is likely to turn away from the US East Coast, but there is still a possibility of a direct hit
As the storm moves over cooler ocean waters and encounters stronger wind shears, Erin is expected to drop to Category 2 strength as it travels along the New England coast next Thursday and Friday, with winds between 96 and 110 mph.
Cooler water provides less energy for hurricanes, and wind shear can disrupt their structure, reducing their overall strength.
However, states like Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts are still projected to see heavy rain and wind later next week.
‘North Carolina’s Outer Banks, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts face a higher risk of direct and potentially severe tropical storm or hurricane conditions than much of the southern Atlantic, mid-Atlantic and northern New England coasts,’ the AccuWeather team revealed.
Erin is projected to reach Category 4 by August 18, with sustained winds over 130 mph as it approaches Bermuda
Offshore, the hurricane could cause massive waves in the Atlantic that range between 50 and 100 feet high.
That kind of ocean activity could put cruise ships and cargo freighters in serious danger. For smaller ships, a 100-foot wave could be life-threatening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an ‘above average’ season that will likely result in more named storms than there were in 2024, when 18 such storms were tracked.
In May, NOAA predicted up to 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes affecting the US this year. The National Hurricane Center noted that approximately 400 people died during 2024’s hurricane season, the deadliest season since 2005.
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