Crash rates spike around Thanksgiving, setting tone for a dangerous winter: report

Crash rates on U.S. highways surge during the winter holidays, starting as early Thanksgiving, and carrying through Christmas and New Year.

Even though many shippers scale back operations and drivers take time off during the Thanksgiving week, last year alone, the commercial collision rate per mile rose 13% compared to the week prior, according to a new report from Samsara. The rate further spiked 65% on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, when passenger vehicles returned on the road while commercial operations also rebounded.

Roughly 70 million people drove during Thanksgiving last year, followed by more than 100 million around Christmas and New Year’s. The overlap of heavy passenger traffic with long-haul freight movements places both groups at risk, Samsara says.

Overall, despite spring being the busiest season for truck drivers, crash rates were 7% higher per one million miles compared to the rest of the year across the full winter season.

Samsara notes that winter risk is not about how many miles are driven, but rather about how hazardous each mile becomes. Congestion, changing pavement temperatures, and the transition from daylight to darkness combine to shrink reaction time.

Fatal crash rates at night are three times higher than during daylight, and the afternoon and evening commuting windows combined account for nearly half of all winter crashes, with 25% occurring in the evening between 4 and 7:59 p.m. due to congestion and glare-to-darkness transition, mixed precipitation. And midday thaw/refreeze cycles, delivery traffic, and variable pavement conditions contributed to 24% of crashes occurring between noon and 4 p.m. Meanwhile, nighttime driving (from 8 p.m. to midnight) added further risk, accounting for 20% of crashes.

The most dangerous states and highways

North Dakota recorded the steepest jump in crash rates heading from fall to winter at 168%, followed by Mississippi at 65% and Kentucky at 50%. Significant spikes were also observed in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa, followed by West Virginia, Nevada and Alaska.

Some of the most dangerous highway segments include Iowa’s I-80, with a 625% increase in winter crash rate, the highest in the country, and I-80 in Wyoming, with crash rates rising 450%.

Samsara’s full list of U.S. roadways that show the largest increases in crash rate during winter, compared to fall, includes:

• I-80, Iowa (625% increase)
Hotspots: Des Moines (Waukee/West Des Moines); Iowa City/Coralville; Council Bluffs–Omaha (Missouri River crossing)
• I-80, Wyoming (450% increase)
Hotspots: Elk Mountain/Arlington; Laramie–Cheyenne; Rock Springs/Green River
• I-40, Arkansas (400% increase)
Hotspots: West Memphis (I-55); Little Rock (I-30/I-430); Russellville–Conway
• Purple Heart Trail, Arizona (300% increase)
Hotspots: Flagstaff (I-17/I-40); Winslow–Holbrook; Kingman–Colorado River
• Bordentown Turnpike, New Jersey (288% increase)
Hotspots: Bordentown/Crosswicks Creek
• I-70, Colorado (267% increase)
Hotspots: Eisenhower/Johnson Tunnels; Vail Pass–Silverthorne; Glenwood Canyon
• I-57, Illinois (267% increase)
Hotspots: South Chicago/Calumet; Effingham–Mattoon; Mt. Vernon–Marion
• I-80, Nebraska (263% increase)
Hotspots: North Platte; Kearney–Grand Island; Lincoln–Omaha
• New Jersey Turnpike, New Jersey (230% increase)
Hotspots: Newark Bay/Jersey City interchange
• Dillard Highway, Oregon (213% increase)
Hotspots: Dillard/South Roseburg
• I-94, Michigan (170% increase)
Hotspots: Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti (US-23)
• I-40, New Mexico (156% increase)
Hotspots: Gallup–Painted Desert; Grants–Continental Divide; East Albuquerque
• I-85, Georgia (150% increase)
Hotspots: Atlanta I-285 (“Spaghetti Junction”)
• Indiana Toll Road (140% increase)
Hotspots: South Bend/Mishawaka
• I-75, Florida (140% increase)
Hotspots: Alligator Alley; Paynes Prairie (Micanopy fog zone); Tampa I-275
• I-44, Missouri (138% increase)
Hotspots: Springfield metro interchanges
• I-70, Kansas/Missouri (133% increase)
Hotspots: Kansas City Downtown Loop; Columbia–Kingdom City; Topeka–Junction City
• I-95, North Carolina (120% increase)
Hotspots: Fayetteville merge zone; Rocky Mount–Wilson
• I-90, Ohio (118% increase)
Hotspots: Cleveland Innerbelt/Lake Erie shoreline; Lorain–Avon
• I-90, New York (117% increase)
Hotspots: Buffalo–Cheektowaga; Syracuse I-81; Albany river crossings