Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
China has formalized a barter-style framework with Iran in which crude oil is exchanged for infrastructure projects (from rail lines and ports to industrial works) rather than cash. The volumes involved are substantial: Beijing already imports an estimated 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian crude, much of it under disguised labels. The new structure secures long-term supply while insulating both sides from dollar clearing and direct sanctions exposure. This arrangement does not fall outside U.S. sanctions law. It remains a purchase of Iranian crude under Executive Order 13846, regardless of how payment is made. Whether settled in goods, services, or construction contracts, it qualifies as a “significant transaction” for Iranian petroleum, leaving traders, contractors, and shipping firms exposed to secondary sanctions. Chinese contractors can take crude as compensation for project work, while settlement occurs through non-dollar channels or deferred credits. The oil moves through opaque intermediaries and reflagged tankers before reaching Chinese ports. The infrastructure offset simply adds another layer of deniability, keeping large state banks and insurers insulated from direct exposure. Washington has not shut this one down for practical reasons. Enforcement would require targeting dozens of Chinese intermediaries, logistics providers, and financial conduits that also serve legitimate trade. Doing so would risk disrupting…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
China has formalized a barter-style framework with Iran in which crude oil is exchanged for infrastructure projects (from rail lines and ports to industrial works) rather than cash. The volumes involved are substantial: Beijing already imports an estimated 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian crude, much of it under disguised labels. The new structure secures long-term supply while insulating both sides from dollar clearing and direct sanctions exposure. This arrangement does not fall outside U.S. sanctions law. It remains a purchase of Iranian crude under Executive Order 13846, regardless of how payment is made. Whether settled in goods, services, or construction contracts, it qualifies as a “significant transaction” for Iranian petroleum, leaving traders, contractors, and shipping firms exposed to secondary sanctions. Chinese contractors can take crude as compensation for project work, while settlement occurs through non-dollar channels or deferred credits. The oil moves through opaque intermediaries and reflagged tankers before reaching Chinese ports. The infrastructure offset simply adds another layer of deniability, keeping large state banks and insurers insulated from direct exposure. Washington has not shut this one down for practical reasons. Enforcement would require targeting dozens of Chinese intermediaries, logistics providers, and financial conduits that also serve legitimate trade. Doing so would risk disrupting China’s broader supply networks and provoke retaliation across unrelated sectors. U.S. policymakers appear to tolerate limited Iranian oil flows to China as a pressure valve, stabilizing Tehran’s finances just enough to prevent collapse, but not enough to embolden it regionally.
Russia’s move to revoke its 2010 plutonium disposal accord with Washington is more political signaling than substantive escalation. The agreement was meant to eliminate 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium per side, but it has already been suspended since 2016, when Moscow accused the U.S. of failing to fulfill its part after changing the disposal method. What’s new is the formal withdrawal process, which adds drama to the timing. It comes days after fresh U.S. sanctions and amid Trump’s renewed hard line on nuclear rearmament. The Kremlin wants to underline that any arms-control architecture surviving from the Obama era is now defunct and that nuclear leverage, not dialogue, defines parity. In practical terms, the plutonium stockpiles are already outside active use and under IAEA observation, so no material risk shift occurs. But symbolically, it reinforces that Moscow is preparing for a post-New START landscape where nuclear signaling again becomes a bargaining tool, not a stabilizer.
Russia launched one of its largest combined missile and drone barrages in months overnight, striking residential areas and several power generation sites across central and western Ukraine, including in the Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Kyiv said more than 80 incoming targets were detected, of which roughly two-thirds were intercepted. The attacks appear aimed at stressing Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter, echoing last year’s campaign that left millions without heat or light for weeks. Independent analysis this week from The Moscow Times questioned claims that Ukrainian strikes have destroyed 38% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, suggesting that while dozens of refineries have been hit since early 2024, only a fraction remain offline for extended periods. Many plants sustained limited damage, with Russia restoring throughput faster than initially assumed, often within days or weeks. The cumulative impact, though real, is far smaller than Kyiv’s portrayal and has not significantly altered Russian fuel export volumes or internal supply so far. The deeper concern for Moscow is the geographic spread of these attacks, which show Kyiv’s drones can now reach nearly any refining region in European Russia, including the Volga basin and Leningrad oblast.
Washington has sanctioned several Indian firms and executives tied to Iran’s oil and petrochemical trade. The U.S. Treasury said the companies shipped Iranian origin products through intermediaries in the Gulf and East Asia, masking cargoes as regional blends. Indian refiners officially halted direct Iranian imports years ago, but secondary trading and blending networks have continued.
Staying on the sanctions beat, it’s been a busy week. Washington has sanctioned more than 50 people, entities, and vessels accused of helping move Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas. The new designations include nearly two dozen shipping vessels, a China-based crude terminal, and a smaller independent refinery accused of handling hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian LPG through disguised intermediaries. This hits not only Iranian front companies but also parts of the Chinese gray market that have been quietly absorbing sanctioned cargoes for reprocessing and reexport.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Orsted’s pulling out the knife. The Danish wind giant says it’ll cut about 800 jobs by 2027, part of a deep cost-reduction drive meant to stop the bleeding after a brutal run of offshore losses. Inflation, supply-chain chaos, and busted U.S. projects have already cost the company billions, and now it’s stripping down to survive the next cycle. Management says that the layoffs will “safeguard competitiveness,” but what they’re really doing is shrinking to fit the new math of offshore wind projects, which have to be smaller, shared, and backed by fixed offtake deals.
Civitas Resources is quietly testing the waters for a merger with another Permian producer, according to multiple industry sources, as consolidation pressure builds across the shale patch. The Denver-based firm is already one of the most acquisitive mid-tier operators in the basin and has been in early-stage talks with at least one private operator about combining acreage and infrastructure to chase scale before the next price cycle. The broader shale trend right now is that we are seeing less wildcatting and more balance sheet engineering as costs rise and efficiency flattens. Civitas has spent the past two years stitching together assets from Hibernia, Tap Rock, and Vencer, and a new deal would show it is not done yet. The tone inside the Permian is shifting: the next wave will not be about barrels, it will be about survival through volume and leverage.
French TotalEnergies has moved to acquire producing assets in the Anadarko Basin, extending its push to control the full gas value chain inside the U.S. The purchase adds immediate output and infrastructure access in one of the country’s more stable shale regions, and folds neatly into the company’s Gulf Coast LNG ambitions. This is part of a strategic tightening of the loop between U.S. upstream supply and export markets, giving TotalEnergies more insulation from feedstock volatility and shipping constraints. Unlike peers retreating from mature basins, the French major is buying efficiency, not exploration risk. The Anadarko position provides reliable supply to feed its downstream terminals and reinforces the shift toward gas as its long-term profit engine.
Discovery & Development
Italy’s Eni North Africa has resumed drilling at the J1-16/4 (BESS-3) offshore well northwest of Tripoli after a five-year halt, but the move reflects a limited technical restart rather than restored stability, as Libya’s energy sector remains divided between Haftar’s control of export terminals and Dbeiba’s hold over the NOC, leaving foreign operators exposed to renewed disruption and political interference.
U.S.-based Base Power has raised $1 billion in a new funding round led by Addition, with participation from Tiger Global, Bond Capital, and existing backers. The company, which develops modular, grid-scale battery systems, said the capital will accelerate factory build-outs in Texas and Nevada and expand its domestic supply chain footprint. This round values Base Power at roughly $7 billion, making it one of the highest-valued private battery firms in North America.
ExxonMobil has chartered two LNG bunker vessels as it prepares to launch a dedicated global fueling business, marking a deeper commitment to natural gas as a marine transition fuel. The ships will begin service in Europe and Singapore next year, supplying LNG to commercial fleets and carriers already shifting away from conventional bunker oil. This is a strategic extension of Exxon’s gas portfolio, tying upstream LNG supply directly to downstream maritime demand, giving it a foothold in a core logistics segment for decarbonized shipping. While competitors are still testing pilot hubs, Exxon is moving early to lock in market share and infrastructure access at key choke points. The goal is control of the supply chain from liquefaction to shipping.
Iran says it has discovered a new natural gas field with estimated reserves of about 623 billion cubic meters, a find that could lift its proven gas base by nearly 5%t. The field, located in Fars province, is said to contain both sweet gas and condensate layers at moderate depth, offering relatively quick development potential if financing can be secured. Iran is pushing to expand its domestic gas grid and reinforce export ambitions through swaps and cross-border supply deals. For now, the discovery is more of a geopolitical signal than near-term output growth, underscoring Iran’s intent to remind the market of its scale and staying power in global gas.
