Breakfast briefing: Data downslide, led by the US -

Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news all the latest economic data seems to be on a downslide.

The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of our currency is weaker.

Elsewhere, the American logistics sector is starting to show the building uncertainty in their economy. Their September LMI came in at near its weakest of 2025 with costs and inventory levels up and warehouse utilisation down.

The same pullback is showing in consumer sentiment too. It softened in October as reported by the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.

And the same wavering sentiment has been picked up in the New York Fed’s national survey of consumer expectations. Inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, expected income growth fell, and the expectations of losing a job rose.

And for the record, the US Federal government shutdown drags on.

In Canada, in August, merchandise exports fell -3.0%, while imports were up +0.9%. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from -$3.8 bln in July to -$6.3 bln in August. Exports featured their first decrease since April and the US tariff moves. Their imports featured a rush to import gold.

However it may not all be gloom in Canada. Their internal economy may be on a roll. Their closely-watch local PMI surged in September to a 16-month high and smashing market expectations of only a minor improvement.

Across the Pacific, we should note that today is the final day of their week-long national holiday in China.

Meanwhile, Japanese household spending rose +2.3% in August from a year ago and far better than expected. In fact, it was the fourth straight monthly rise and the strongest pace since May. Helping were government support measures at tackling cost pressures (including the big rice price jump) and the new American tariffs.

In Australia, consumer sentiment is receding. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October from September to its lowest reading in six months. Optimism about where family finances are headed is fading. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts is rising. And pessimism about housing affordability is rising as house price expectations hit new 15-year high. These are retrograde moves.

And that is showing up in job ads. The ANZ-Indeed measure of job ads fell -3.3% in September, one of the largest monthly drops in the past 18 months. The latest data was the third consecutive monthly fall and the sixth monthly drop this year so far.

And globally, it is probably worth noting that the Boeing 737 has been dethroned as history’s most popular jet aircraft. It has now been overtaken by Airbus’s A320 which has now produced and delivered 12,260 of this model.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +55 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by only +5 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now +2 bps positive. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.88% while they are on holiday. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.35%, down -4 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just on 4.26%, down -1 bp from yesterday.

Wall Street is down -0.5% on the S&P500 today and giving up all of yesterday’s gain. European markets were little-changed. Tokyo was also little-changed in Tuesday trade. Hong Kong fell -0.7% in their Tuesday trade. Shanghai was still closed, today being the final day of their holiday. Singapore ended up +1.1%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday down -0.3%. But the NZX50 was up +0.3%.

The price of gold will start today at US$3973/oz, up +US$21 from yesterday and a new high and edging toward US$4000. In fact it hit that level, briefly, about four hours ago. Silver is taking a breather however and is lower today

American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc, down -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$121,767 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.

And join us at 2pm later today for the results of the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Review. Financial markets are still split on whether it will be a -25 bps or -50 bps cut, but yesterday’s weak QSBO might have tipped it to the larger one.