AGRIWEEK – January 06, 2025

January 06, 2025

Cocoa tops global commodities rally for secone year, steel ingredients struggle on China demand

Cocoa and coffee are poised to close 2024 as the biggest gainers among commodities for a second year on a global supply deficit, while steel-making coal will end as the worst performer, hit by slow growth in China.

Looking ahead, global trade tensions are likely to dominate the commodities landscape in 2025 as Donald Trump returns to the White House threatening hefty tariffs, analysts said.

A strong dollar and gold’s appeal as a haven for investors are likely to support precious metals prices, while ample supply could depress oil for a third year, they added.

In bad news for chocolate lovers, cocoa nearly tripled in price over 2024, far outpacing gains in other commodities. It hit a record high of $12,931 a tonne in New York earlier this month on forecasts of lower supply for a fourth successive season in West Africa following dry weather.

“The softs sector, led by cocoa and coffee, has been the main winner amid adverse weather in key growing regions, highlighting the risk to prices when products like these are produced and sourced from relatively small geographical areas,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

Top cocoa producers Ivory Coast and Ghana have suffered crop losses due to adverse weather, bean disease, smuggling and reduced plantations in favour of illegal gold mining.

Dryness has strained coffee supplies as well. ICE Arabica coffee prices soared to their highest in more than 40 years amid fears that severe drought earlier this year damaged the upcoming crop in top producer Brazil.

Crude oil and bulk metals faced headwinds in 2024 as China, the world’s second-biggest economy and top commodities buyer, struggled mainly due to a property crisis.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures could post a third consecutive annual decline in 2025 as supply outstrips a rebound in demand growth, analysts said, although Trump’s policies on major producers Russia and Iran could curb supply.

Spare capacity in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an unprecedented five million barrels per day (bpd), analysts estimated, with the group having extended production cuts to March.

Iron ore prices in China recouped some losses in recent months but are still headed for a 15 per cent decline in 2024. Prices could fall again next year as iron ore supply grows and Chinese steel demand falls, analysts said, despite Beijing’s stimulus measures.

“We expect the increase in iron ore supply from major miners will be higher than that in 2024, but steel output in China will likely slide,” Pei Hao, senior analyst at brokerage Freight Investor Services, said, forecasting an average price of $100 a ton in 2025, down from an average of $110 in 2024.

Gold and silver rose more than 25 per cent in 2024 and could climb further in the year ahead depending on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and Trump’s tariff, tax and foreign policies, analysts said.

“Gold is the standout for us in 2025,” ING’s head of commodity research Warren Patterson said, adding that strong gold purchases by central banks will support demand.

Copper and aluminium prices are set to end 2024 higher, driven by tight supplies, the energy transition and hopes that China’s stimulus measures will boost demand.

For agricultural products, Malaysian palm oil futures jumped around 20 per cent in 2024, snapping two consecutive years of losses, lifted by Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate and adverse weather in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Crop-threatening weather also drove a 42 per cent gain in Tokyo rubber futures.

In contrast, soybeans, corn and wheat were in plentiful supply, all on track for losses in 2024. However, wheat prices could find some support in 2025 as warmer weather in Russia, the biggest exporter, threatens to reduce output.

Top soybean exporter Brazil is poised to deliver record supplies in 2025, positioning it to meet a rise in Chinese demand if a Washington-Beijing trade war erupts.

Readers may wonder why we regularly feature stories on palm oil in this newsletter. Palm oil is the most critical component of the world oil trade, accounting for 56 per cent of the world trade in vegetable oil with the five-year average of 46.6 million tonnes. Sunflower oil is the second most widely traded vegetable oil at 12.8 million tonnes, which is 15.4 per cent of the total trade in vegetable oils. Close behind is soybean oil with global trade at 12.2 million tonnes. Where does rapeseed (canola) oil fit in the global trade matrix? Rapeseed oil is the fourth most widely traded vegetable oil at 7.8 million tonnes which is only 8.0 per cent of global trade. Global prices for vegetable oils are largely determined by the supply and demand situation in palm oil. That’s why what is happening in the southeast Asian palm oil production areas is of interest to Canadian canola farmers.

Feeder market finishes 2024 on strong tone

For the week ending December 21, Western Canadian backgrounded cattle and heavier calves were unchanged to $5 lower on average. Calves in the 600- to 800-pound range were relatively unchanged while calves under 600 pounds were steady to $10 higher.

Volumes were limited this past week with many auction barns closed for the season. Colder temperature and winter conditions were widespread across the Prairies, but the market held value. The April and June live cattle futures fell $4-$5 for the week, which weighed on the heavier weight categories.

The industry is bracing for fairly aggressive heifer retention during the summer and fall of 2025 which is underpinning calves under 700 pounds. Finishing feedlots are anticipating lower yearling supplies next summer and these operators want to secure early ownership by purchasing lighter calves now.

On Thursday, December 19, Alberta packers were buying fed cattle on a dressed basis at $420/cwt delivered, up $15/cwt from 30 days earlier. U.S. packers were shopping more aggressively in Alberta with sales equating to $260-$262 fob feedlot in Southern Alberta. Feeding margins have improved which has rejuvenated buying interest for all weight categories of replacements.

Clubroot fights back with increased pathotypes

There are now 55 different types of clubroot across the Prairies.

About a decade ago, in 2016, the number of pathotypes was 17.

The increasing number of variants of the soil-borne disease is a concern, but canola growers need to remember that most of these pathotypes are rare, said Steve Strelkov, a plant pathologist at the University of Alberta.

“It (the population) is still dominated by a handful of pathotypes,” said Strelkov, who spoke recently at Canola Week in Saskatoon.

Clubroot affects crucifers such as canola, causing galls or swellings to form on the roots of plants, according to the Canola Council of Canada website.

“Severely infected roots can’t transport adequate water and nutrients to aboveground plant tissues. This can result in wilting, reduced seed production, stunting and possibly premature death of the plant.”

Strelkov said he and other researchers at the University of Alberta and the provincial government looked at 691 canola fields in Alberta this year and found clubroot in 307 of them.

Of that, 167 cases were in fields with no history of the disease.

It is now present in 47 of Alberta’s 66 counties and municipal districts.

While clubroot continues to spread in the province, the number of detections in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is relatively low:

From 2008-23, only 82 fields had confirmed cases of clubroot in Saskatchewan.

From 2009-19, there were 35 confirmed cases in Manitoba.

In Alberta, from 2005-24, there have been 4,190 fields with cases of clubroot.

The difference in magnitude between Alberta and the other provinces is massive. It could be connected to soil pH because clubroot spores prefer acidic soil.

“In Alberta, we have a much higher percentage of acidic soils,” Strelkov said.

Alkaline soils can reduce the severity of clubroot, but it doesn’t stop the disease or prevent symptoms on canola plants, says the canola council website.

“While the risk may be lower, high pH does not mean immunity. Plus, pH is often highly variable in a field. Fields can have patches with lower pH,and clubroot could take hold within those patches.”

Another explanation for the rarity of clubroot in Manitoba and Saskatchewan is that the disease arrived in those provinces five years later than Alberta. By that time, around 2009, canola breeders and the seed industry had developed hybrids with genetic resistance to clubroot.

The increasing number of clubroot pathotypes in Alberta could simply be evolution as the soil disease responds to canola that has genetic resistance.

“By growing those resistant varieties, we’re maybe selecting for a rare element of the (clubroot) population,” Strelkov said.

From 2021-23, researchers at the U of A tested 206 fields, mostly in Alberta, and found an additional 31 unique pathotypes.

Of the 55 types of clubroot now identified in Canada, 35 can overcome the genetic resistance in some clubroot resistant canola.

That sounds bad, but most of the troublesome variants are rare and only found in a few fields.

What is worrisome, however, is that a couple of problematic pathotypes are starting to gain ground.

Most of the clubroot in Alberta falls into three variants, known as 3A, 3D and 3H. They represent 57 per cent of the total population.

“(But) they’re not as predominant as they once were,” Strelkov said, adding that in 2020 they were 70 to 75 per cent of all pathotypes.

Those variants of clubroot are decreasing and other types, called 9D and 9E, are becoming more common.

“Isolates from 9D, they could cause severe clubroot on all hosts that we tested,” Strelkov said.

“Those pathotype 9s variants are something to look out for.”

Panama Canal has big plans to deal with drought

The Rio Indio dam project was first proposed two decades ago, more extreme weather in the last decade, including a severe drought in the past year that restricted vessel traffic on the canal, has lent greater urgency to the proposal.

The Panama Canal accounts for 3.1 per cent of the Central American country’s gross domestic product. The waterway, which allows up to 14,000 ships to cross per year, accounts for 2.5 per cent of global seaborne trade and is critical to U.S. imports of autos and commercial goods by container ships from Asia, and for U.S exports of commodities, including liquefied natural gas.

“The Rio Indio reservoir project would be the most complete solution (to more frequent droughts) in a 50-year horizon,” the canal’s deputy administrator, Ilya Espino de Marotta, said.

The project still needs to pass a long approval process, including public consultation, discussion by the cabinet and the National Assembly’s final green light.

Panama President Jose Mulino has said the discussion will be completed next year, but the shipping industry is watching with trepidation after delays and suspensions of major projects in recent years, including a controversial mining contract with Canada’s First Quantum Minerals.

After broad public opposition, the Supreme Court last year declared the contract unconstitutional, and the government ordered the mine to be closed.

Although the number of people facing relocation for the dam is relatively small, they are backed by an activist group called Countrymen Co-ordinator for Life, which was instrumental in blocking First Quantum’s mining contract.

Jose Icaza, minister for canal affairs, said the government understands the anxiety and concerns of residents.

“Our priority is not to impact the living conditions and the peace of the basin’s residents, and for this reason we will continue to work directly with them to meet their needs as we move forward with the construction project,” he said.

The Panama Canal Authority aims to create a massive dam 840 metres in length and 80.5 m in height to secure fresh water for its locks. It says the reservoir’s 1.25 billion cubic metres of water would allow up to 15 additional vessel transits per day during the dry season and help provide drinking water to Panama’s growing 4.5 million population.

If it wins approval, the dam is expected to be completed by 2030 or 2031, but the clock is ticking. Last year was the third driest in the waterway’s 110-year history. The second driest was 2015.

Meteorologists forecast Panama will face more severe droughts and faster water evaporation due to higher temperatures in the future.

According to an initial survey by the canal, the project would demand the relocation of some 2,260 people and would impact, at least partially, an additional 2,000 people in the reservoir zone.

The project, which includes a $400-million budget for its social component, mainly relocations, has divided residents. Some are willing to sell their land and move, while others want to fight the project.

“No farmer wants to live in a slum,” said Dilubino Agraje, who represents the Rio Indio communities at Countrymen Co-ordinator for Life. The organization is pressing for more details about the relocation plans.

“We were born and raised here. If we leave, it is not because we want to, but because we’ll have to,” said 60-year-old Paulino Alabarca, a rice farmer born in Tres Hermanas.

Canal minister Icaza said the Rio Indio project was imperative for the canal’s survival and “the most viable option.”

“Climate change has really ruined the natural navigation channels that existed,” she said.

The recurrence of the El Niño weather phenomenon has accelerated to every three years, extending Panama’s dry season and exhausting much of the water resources in the country with the fifth most rainfall in the world.

Its next occurrence, expected in 2027, will be a challenge for the canal again since the Rio Indio project is not expected to be ready before 2030, said canal chief Ricaurte Vasquez.

In preparation for the next drought, the canal has changed its reservation model, is calling on shippers to consolidate cargoes and is preparing water recycling measures.

In recent years, the expansion of housing near the waterway has intensified the canal’s competition with its surrounding communities for fresh water, said Panama City-based environmentalist Raisa Banfield.

“The canal exists and the canal must operate as efficiently as possible,” Banfield said.

But, she added, there needs to be a balance.

“The question is … how much are we going to sacrifice to continue passing ships and more ships and bigger ships?”

Winter wheat conditions to worsen in central Russia and Volga, weather agency says

Conditions for winter wheat crops will worsen in Russia’s Central and Volga areas in January as warmer-than-usual weather and excess moisture causes sprouts to keep growing during the winter, the state weather agency said Dec. 28.

Winter crops account for 90 per cent of wheat production in Russia, the world’s top exporter of the grain. Analysts have been reducing their 2025 wheat harvest and export forecasts following reports that more than 37 per cent of winter crops are in poor condition or have failed to sprout.

The weather agency said snow cover in the Central and Volga regions had reached 28-30 cm (11-11.8 inches), but that the probability of much colder spells is low, creating a risk of potential plant damage due to excessive wetness.

Continued growth during winter weakens winter crop sprouts, leading to unnecessary consumption of sugar and energy.

The Central area includes Voronezh, Russia’s fifth-biggest grain producer, and Kursk, Russia’s seventh-largest grain-producing region. The Volga area includes Saratov, the country’s No. 6 grain-producing region.

The agency added that conditions for winter crops in the Southern area, which includes Russia’s largest grain-producing regions, Rostov and Krasnodar, would be satisfactory, although the level of moisture in the soil is expected to remain low.

Russia cuts export duty on peas, chickpeas and lentils

Russia, the world’s top exporter of peas, announced Dec. 28 a fixed five per cent export duty on peas, chickpeas and lentils from Jan. 1, effectively lowering the duty by 30 per cent after exports of pulses slowed and left large volumes unsold.

The flexible duty, applied previously, could go up to seven per cent depending on the rouble’s exchange rate. The measure will help maintain a balanced ratio between exports and domestic consumption of legumes, the government said in a statement.

“Any actions that reduce uncertainty have a positive impact on the market. Previously, the tariff changed depending on the average dollar exchange rate, forcing traders to act too cautiously,” said Sergei Pluzhnikov, head of Russian Pulses Analytics.

Pluzhnikov estimated that the measure implied a de-facto 30 per cent reduction in the duty.

Russian production of pulses has boomed in the last two years, with many farmers switching to more profitable pulses from wheat, currently the country’s main agricultural export.

In 2023, the country became the world’s largest exporter of peas, exporting 2.9 million tonnes of peas and surpassing former top exporter Canada, mostly due to booming exports to China.

Russia has also begun exporting pulses to India, another major consumer.

According to IKAR consultancy, pea exports to China slowed sharply to 700,000 tonnes from July to December, the first part of the 2024/2025 exporting season, compared to 1.7 million tonnes during the same period of last year.

Despite a record large-seeded area under pulses, this year’s crop fell to four million tonnes from a record 4.7 million last year, due to bad weather. IKAR said that with slowing exports, large volumes of pulses remain unsold.

Pluzhnikov said that the world’s major consumers of pulses — China, India and Turkey — have been less active this year and still hold large stocks accumulated in recent years.

Algerian wheat purchases in tender seen at 1.17 million tonnes

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased an estimated 1.17 million tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender, which closed on earlier this week, European traders said on Thursday.

Traders had reported the purchase on Dec. 31 but had not given estimates of tonnes bought.

Prices reported on Jan. 2 were again around $257 to $258 a tonne cost and freight (c&f) included, they said.

In its last full-scale milling wheat tender in late October, OAIC was estimated by traders to have booked around 600,000 tonnes for shipment in December at the higher price of $263 a tonne c&f.

Traders suspected some of the wheat purchased this week would be sourced from the Black Sea region, including Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, although technically the grain can be sourced from optional origins. Some traders also expect some Russian wheat to be supplied.

Trader reports said around eight companies made sales, including one French trading house.

Algeria, one of the leading markets for EU wheat exports, for many years sourced most of its imported wheat from France. But Russian and other Black Sea region exporters have been expanding in the market, a trend amplified by the apparent sidelining of French supplies in OAIC’s tenders since early October amid diplomatic tensions between Algiers and Paris.

OAIC, which does not release details of its tenders, has said it treats all suppliers equally.

Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are possible later.

The wheat was sought for shipment in four periods from the main supply regions, including Europe: Feb. 1-15, Feb. 16-28, March 1-15 and March 16-31. If sourced from South America or Australia, shipment is one month earlier.

Argentina exchange edges up corn, cuts soybean planting estimates

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Dec. 27 edged up its corn planting area estimate, while trimming the pegged soybean area for the 2024/25 season.

The corn crop is now seen covering 6.6 million hectares, up from a prior estimation of 6.3 million hectares, the exchange said, adding the new forecast was a “correction” of the previous one.

The soybean planting area, meanwhile, is now seen at 18.4 million hectares, a reduction of 200,000 hectares from the prior estimate.

Farmers are sowing less of the crop on lower soybean prices, the exchange said, adding they were turning to alternative options.

Soybean and corn compete for surface area in Argentina, one of the world’s top corn exporters and the number one exporter of soy byproducts.

Argentine farmers have sown 84.6 per cent of the area set aside for the soybean crop and 80.9 per cent of corn fields, according to the report.

The exchange noted that about 88.5 per cent of wheat fields have been reaped, with the season’s harvest seen at 18.6 million metric tons.

China plans decade-long drive to boost cereal grain consumption

China last week launched a decade-long plan to boost consumption of cereal grains and develop the industry through higher production standards, research and international co-operation as part of efforts to enhance food security.

The 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry.

“By 2035, the people’s awareness of cereal grains will be significantly improved, the proportion of cereal grains in residents’ dietary consumption will increase significantly, and the level of cereal grain consumption will basically match the level of (China’s) economic and social development,” it said in a notice to various government agencies.

China is the world’s biggest cereal grain grower, producing 652 million tonnes in 2024. However, it remains reliant on imports of corn, wheat and such to feed its population of 1.4 billion people.

For example, China ships large volumes of higher quality wheat from Canada, Australia and Russia to make pasta and baked goods.

The world’s largest grains buyer imported 59.08 million tons of cereal grains and flour in 2023. Raising consumption and quality of its domestic produce will cut China’s demand from the global market.

As part of the plan, China said it would “vigorously promote” the health benefits of consuming cereal grains and recommend cereal grain foods in nutritional dietary guidance, particularly in government offices, campuses and military camps.

Cereal grains include wheat, corn, rice, barley, sorghum, buckwheat and oats. A large portion of China’s corn production is for livestock feed.

China said it would drive the breeding and planting of grain varieties suitable for food consumption to raise the production and quality of grains.

It also called for active participation in the formulation of international cereal grain standards and deeper international exchanges and cooperation.

To drive production, it said it would cultivate a group of leading whole grain food processing enterprises and high-quality cereal grain industry clusters.

StatCan issues crush, delivery reports

Statistics Canada published its crush and grain deliveries reports on Dec. 24.

StatCan reported the November canola crush was almost 1.02 million tonnes. While that was 12.2 per cent more than in the previous November, it was about 7.5 per cent less than the record canola crush of 1.10 million tonnes in October.

The November crush produced 427,366 tonnes of canola oil, besting the 386,867 from a year ago. At 595,085 tonnes, meal produced edged out the previous November’s 526,448 tonnes.

As for Canada’s November soybean crush, it reached 142,330 tonnes, down 7.1 per cent from November 2023. Soyoil produced came to 26,364 tonnes, slipping from 26,773 a year ago. November soymeal output was 112,450 tonnes, falling from 117,597 the previous November.

StatCan said November deliveries of all grains amounted to 4.83 million tonnes, compared to 5.63 million the year before.

Total wheat deliveries were 2.76 million tonnes versus 3.36 million tonnes 12 months earlier. Of that, durum amounted to 651,603 tonnes this November compared to 390,129 tonnes a year previously.

At 1.45 million tonnes, November canola deliveries stepped back from the 1.64 million hauled in 12 months earlier.

Barley deliveries were down from a year ago at 304,782 tonnes versus 372,099, but those for oats improved to 279,254 tonnes from 228,555.

Rye deliveries in November dropped to 10,923 tonnes from 14,924 the previous November. Flax as well was lower, but by a much lesser amount at 17,240 tonnes from 18,442.

Prairie forecast: Colder weather moving in with the New Year

This holiday season we’ve been stuck in a quiet but mild weather pattern. While weak systems make for a reliable general forecast, it makes it difficult to get the finer details. For this forecast period, it looks like the quiet weather pattern will continue as the weather models are not showing any big storm systems impacting the Prairies. We should continue our slow cooldown with temperatures during most of this forecast period looking to be near to below average.

The main driving force for our weather during this forecast period will be a very large area of low pressure developing over eastern Canada. The counterclockwise rotation around this feature will create a northwesterly flow across Western Canada. This will open the door for Arctic air to move southwards.

The first Arctic high is forecasted to slide southeastwards from the Yukon to southern Manitoba by the first weekend of the New Year with a second high forecasted to drop southeastwards early in the first full week of 2025. In between these highs, a weak disturbance could bring a little light snow. A second weak disturbance is forecasted to hit parts of the Prairies around the middle of next week.

Argentina’s agro export revenue up 27 per cent in 2024

According to a recent Reuters report, Argentina’s farm sector brought in a total $1.97 billion through exports in December, a 58 per cent increase compared to the same month a year earlier, the CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed and grains crushers and exporters said.

Full-year revenues were up 27 per cent from the previous year, driven by an increased grain crop, the chamber said in a statement.

The foreign exchange inflows in December were “the result of a good pace of producer grain sales, the start of the wheat and barley harvests, as well as a solid soybean crushing program for shipments of soy meal and soy oil,” CIARA-CEC added.

India’s cabinet approves package to subsidize phosphate-based fertilizers

India’s cabinet has approved a one-time package worth up to 38.50 billion rupees to provide di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizers at a subsidized price for farmers, the information minister said.

Food and beverage sector sees softening demand for workers

Job vacancies in food and beverage manufacturing fell to 2019 levels this year, but softening demand for workers isn’t necessarily a positive sign, says Farm Credit Canada.

Among food manufacturers, job vacancies fell nearly 32 per cent in 2024, while the number of payroll employees fell almost five per cent, wrote FCC senior economist Amanda Norris in a Dec. 18 report. This led to a job vacancy rate of 2.6 per cent.

Despite less competition for workers, wages offered for food manufacturing jobs rose 9.2 per cent year over year.

Beverage manufacturers saw a drop in vacancies of about 21 per cent, while the number of payroll employees rebounded after two years of declines, Norris wrote. This led to an increased labour demand of nearly seven per cent. However, wages offered for these jobs fell 0.2 per cent year-over-year.

Labourers, process control operators and industrial butchers were the most common job vacancies, but the number of openings has reached or fallen below 2019 levels.

Norris said softening demand for workers doesn’t necessarily predict positive tidings. The sector is ending the year with flat sales, and wages are rising to catch up with inflation. FCC predicted stronger sales growth in 2025, but also rising wages.

“Coupled with the uncertainty around both domestic demand and exports, businesses may be more hesitant to expand their workforce,” Norris wrote. “Uncertain times have led to paused investment plans, which does not bode well for the sector’s productivity.”

The food and beverage sector may also face additional labour challenges, as the percentage of its workforce over the age of 55 reached 28 per cent this year.

The federal government has also clamped down on levels of temporary foreign worker employment. Though food and beverage manufacturers are exempt from current program tweaks, FCC said further changes can’t be ruled out.

“We’re expecting a tight labour supply to keep wage growth strong, resulting in tight margins for the food and beverage manufacturing industry in 2025,” Norris said

Spring wheat cash prices increased during the past two weeks in Western Canada with prices increasing by C$1.42 to C$1.49 per tonne. Spring wheat basis levels improved in the face of a downward move by spring wheat futures. The loonie continued to support basis levels with nearby Canadian dollar futures dropping to 69.50 U.S. cents. Spring wheat contracts lost two cents per bushel over the past two weeks. Conversely the Chicago and Kansas City futures gained nine to 13 cents per bushel during the past two weeks.

The vegetable oil complex was mixed over the past two weeks with ICE canola futures closing up by C$19.70 per tonne. Cash prices for canola were even stronger with gains ranging from C$23 to C$30 per tonne. Nearby soybean futures increased by 15 cents per bushel during the past two weeks, while soybean oil futures dropped by 0.15 cents per pound. Soybean meal futures increased over the past fortnight with the nearby contract gaining US$28.90 per short ton.

Corn futures dropped by 19 cents per bushel during the past two weeks while oat futures moved up by 26 cents per bushel. Cash oat prices remained flat with bids in central Saskatchewan dropping by C$2.00 per tonne to the C$229 per tonne mark. Cash barley prices in Alberta were down by C$1.13 per tonne during the past two weeks.

Cattle futures prices rallied during the past two weeks with feeders increasing by 11.62 cents per hundred-weight. Live cattle contracts were also higher during the period and with the nearby contract up by US$7.05 per hundred-weight. Hog futures dropped over the past two weeks with nearby contracts down by US$2.48 per hundred-weight.

Weekly Chicago March Corn Futures

Weekly Chicago March Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis March Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City March Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybeans March Futures

Weekly ICE Canola March Futures

Five Major Events in 2024

The five top events in 2024 in my opinion are as follows

1. The top news is the result of the U.S. election and the potential impact on Canadian exports. The tariff man Trump was elected, and Canada, Mexico and China are expected to bear the brunt of the initial tariff threats. This is likely a negotiation tactic by president-elect Trump, but it will still cause issues for the Canadian economy. Agriculture will not escape the impact of potential tariffs. The most vulnerable agriculture exports are livestock (both hogs and cattle), canola oil, wheat and durum. No matter what the result is with the tariff negotiations, this will be a huge distraction for most of 2025 and beyond.
2. Almost tied for first place is the turmoil in the Canadian political situation. It appears that Prime Minister Trudeau is on his way out as the Liberal party in the aftermath of the resignation of the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland. The timing of the next election still is up in the air, but it’s looking like a federal election in March. This is not an ideal situation given that the new U.S. is likely to apply maximum pressure on the Canadian government in the first few months of 2025.
3. On a more practical level, 2024 marked the second year of broad-based declines in agricultural commodity prices. Cash wheat prices have dropped by close to C$40 per tonne from last year, while canola is off between C$70 and C$80 per tonne. Specialty crops have fared slightly better but were still generally down by at least 10 per cent from last year. Most commodities are now approaching pre-pandemic levels. Even with the continuing war in Ukraine and Russia, commodity prices continued to move down through the year.
4. Canadian weather this year did offer a bit of improvement for Canadian farmers and ranchers with most regions of the Prairies reporting above normal precipitation. The crop in early July had near record potential. Unfortunately, the heat and dryness in August took its toll on most crops in the filling stage. Canola crops were impacted the most by the dry and hot weather, but yields for other crops were also reduced. Pasture and hay conditions improved dramatically this year as the spring rains revived pastures. Tame hay yields were also improved this year, especially for the first cut.
5. Last, but not least, is the threat of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola. The Chinese anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola has been pushed into the background as the threat of U.S. tariffs moved to the forefront. Make no mistake about it, the imposition of Chinese tariffs would have an immediate impact on Canadian canola prices. The good news is that the exports to China have been strong and need to slow down in the coming months. The downside is that tariffs from China will most certainly impact bids for new crop 2025 canola. Chinese tariffs may very well be the top event impacting Canadian agriculture in 2025.