Get your popcorn ready.
Arizona, Illinois, Michigan and UConn are the last four teams standing in this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament and the Final Four tips off Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
As somebody that grew up in Chicago and attended the University of Illinois, it’s impossible for me to give you an unbiased side in the first game. I’ll be rooting for the Illini but don’t feel responsible advising you to bet ‘em when I spent years drinking blue guys at Kams and making orange BORGs at parties.
C’est la vie.
Here are three bets I do like this Saturday:
Illinois (-2, O/U 139.5) vs. UConn
While I truly believe Illinois has the better roster, Danny Hurley’s squad has been a cash-making freight train the last few tournaments.
The Huskies are 17-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 18 tourney games, and now they are catching points in a game they could easily win. It should be obvious what I want to happen, but rooting and betting should never be parlayed together.
Enter player props.
After Braylon Mullins swished one of the most memorable shots in NCAA history to beat Duke, you’re paying a premium on his points prop. Sportsbooks are dealing him at O/U 12.5 juiced to the Under. He’s a sharpshooter with a bright future, but let’s be real — he’s UConn’s fourth option.
I like Under 12.5 points at -130.
On the other sideline, Andrej Stojakovic — yes, Peja’s kid — is a bucket getter. Thing is, the Huskies are so good defending the perimeter, and they do an incredible job harassing shooters. Sure, Stojakovic could score 20, but given his feast-or-famine range, I think the number is a smidge too high.
He’s got the same line, albeit cheaper at -115.
PICK: Braylon Mullins (-130) Under 12.5 points
PICK: Andrej Stojakovic (-115) Under 12.5 points
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Michigan (-1.5, O/U 157.5) vs. Arizona
This is the unquestioned game of the Tournament.
Most pundits are calling it the de facto championship game, and it’s tough to poke holes in that assessment. Michigan and Arizona are complete teams that are dominant on both sides of the ball.
Illinois has an elite offense, UConn has a top-tier defense. These two are extraordinary on both sides.
As I wrote before March got mad, I love the Wolverines’ size, defense, shot making and experience. It’s the total package. They’ve been the best team from the nation’s best conference all season long, and there’s no player in America I trust more with the game on the line than Yaxel Lendeborg.
Fundamentally, I refuse to lay 1.5 points in a college basketball game. My friend Bill Krackomberger always talks about paying the extra price to win these Tournament games and I wholeheartedly agree. I’ll pay the extra 10 cents just in case Arizona decides to bank in a 3 at the buzzer to lose by 1.
Go Blue.
PICK: Michigan (-120) moneyline
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