The number of truck driver jobs dropped for the second month in a row. Those still driving wonder how many more jobs will vanish and how this will affect rates.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that nearly 3,000 truck driver jobs were lost in June. When revised, that means over 4,000 jobs have been cut in the past two months.
However, March saw a surge in truck driver jobs, the biggest in nearly three years. This helped keep trucking employment positive both year-to-date and year-over-year. Many businesses were preparing for tariffs set to begin in April.
President Donald Trump put those tariffs on a 90-day pause to compel negotiations. That suspension ends Wednesday, July 9. On Monday, July 7, Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to Aug. 1.
Trump also shared images on social media showing letters to 14 countries about the tariffs. This includes a 25% tariff on imports from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia. Other tariffs range from 30% on South African imports to 40% on imports from Laos and Myanmar.
Weak demand is putting downward pressure on spot rates. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, wonders how long truckload carriers can last in these tough conditions that have lasted more than three years.
“It is clearly having an impact on equipment ordering patterns, as carriers are holding off on investing in new assets, which will lead to additional downward pressure on trucking employment as the year goes on,” Spencer said. “Carriers will do everything they can to retain quality drivers, but equipment reductions alone could lead to some future reductions in employment to the driver population.”
According to ACT Research, preliminary data shows Class 5-8 truck orders fell 39% year-over-year in June. Class 8 vehicles alone saw a 36% drop. Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT Research, noted that publicly traded for-hire fleets had the weakest net income margins in 15 years during the first quarter. This could lead to more trouble for truck driver jobs in the coming months.
“Private fleets have spent the past two years adding fleet capacity and have little need for additional supply,” Vieth said. “On the vocational side, worsening housing and construction markets and regulation uncertainty has sapped strength that looked all but certain at the beginning of the year.”
Accounting for all transportation-sector jobs, employment increased by 7,500 jobs in June. The net increase comes despite a 7,000-job loss between truck driver jobs and workers in air transportation.
Big gains in couriers/messengers (4,800), transit/ground passenger transport (4,000) and warehousing/storage (2,400) helped boost the numbers.
Across all industries, the nation added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the estimated gain of 115,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. June’s job increase is slightly above the 12-month average of 144,400.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. For the transportation sector, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%. This is still above the pre-pandemic level of 2.8% in December 2019 and June 2019’s level of 4.1%. However, it is far below the high of 15.7% in May and July 2020. The unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving jobs dropped 0.8 percentage points to 5.9%. LL
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