
Fleet managers face key decisions that need to be made today as they brace for EPA27 emissions rules that will add an estimated $25,000 to $30,000 to the cost of a Class 8 truck.
Mike Roeth, executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE), and Brian Antonellis, senior vice-president of fleet operations at Fleet Advantage, highlighted the risks of inaction during a recent NACFE webinar. With heavy-duty trucks facing stricter nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions limits, extended warranty requirements, and a production cap of 300,000 trucks per year, they warned that delays in preparation could lead to missed allocations and rising costs.

“You can’t hit the easy button and say, ‘I’m just not going to buy trucks in 2027, I’ll buy them in 2026,’” Antonellis said.
He explained that OEMs and dealers allocate trucks based on prior purchase volumes, making it critical for fleets to strategically spread their orders over 2025 and 2026 to ensure they secure the vehicles they need before demand peaks.
“Allocation is just an OEM’s and a dealer’s way of saying you’re going to get this year what you bought last year,” Antonellis said. “To find balance, orders need to be placed now to ensure access to the right number of trucks by 2027.”
Importance of the right people and tools
Antonellis said the first step in effective planning is having the right team in place to manage procurement and related fleet strategies.
Having the right people on board, he explained, must go hand in hand with having access to accurate data and the tools to manage it effectively.
Antonellis also emphasized the importance of creating and using key performance indicators (KPIs) to track fleet performance and shape long-term strategy.
“Being able to capture all of your data correctly, have the right team in place, have the right tools, being able to put it into a manageable flow that you can understand—it really sets you up to do a fleet study. And for us, that’s analyzing your data, getting very granular, down to the cost per mile per truck per year, setting your plan for where you want to get in the next three or four years, and being able to model out what that looks like.”

NACFE’s Roeth, too, urged fleet managers to analyze key metrics like cost per mile, lifecycle trends, and operational data to guide procurement decisions and manage costs.
“We’ve used data forever. We didn’t need computers,” Roeth said. “I remember my dad ran the farm with handwritten spreadsheets all over the wall of our farmhouse office. That’s what we do in trucking…it’s just now maybe more complex and a lot more important, in our opinion, for success in trucking.”
Roeth also encouraged fleets to expand their internal expertise while leaning on external partners for support – from OEMs, consultants, and non-profits like NACFE. “I do believe fleets are going to need to expand some of their know-how inside to deal with what’s coming. But I also think leveraging your partners is critical,” he said. “They’ve been your [existing] partners and will likely continue to be the same partners going forward.”
Don’t overlook diesel trucks
While much of the focus has been on acquiring new trucks, Antonellis emphasized the importance of planning for existing equipment. Failing to remarket or offload older diesel trucks as part of a pre-buy strategy could lead to significant financial losses, he said.
“The worst thing you can do is get to 2027 and be stuck with a yard full of used trucks with nowhere to go,” Antonellis said. Comprehensive planning must include strategies for selling or trading older trucks before they depreciate further, whether through third-party dealers, private sales, or OEM trade-in programs.
Roeth described the current period of greener vehicle adoption as a “messy middle,” where fleets are balancing traditional diesel engines with a growing range of alternative powertrains, each with unique costs and operational requirements. BEVs, for example, are better suited to urban and short-haul applications but require significant investments in charging infrastructure, while renewable fuels and natural gas remain viable for long hauls.
This is why leveraging existing data and partnerships will help fleets better understand the variety of options available today, as well as their pros and cons, which will help them choose the right options for fleet needs and capabilities.
Flexible, long-term planning
Both experts emphasized the need for flexible, multi-year plans that account for evolving regulations, while allowing for manageable adjustments along the way. Delaying decisions, they warned, could lead to even higher costs and more complex transitions.
“Course corrections are fine, but you don’t want to reinvent your entire strategy each time,” Antonellis said. “As you’re doing your plan, you have to figure out how many ZEVs to bring in, how many diesels that will give you access to, and how to manage allocation across 2025, 2026, and 2027.”
Roeth advised fleets to view EPA27 as part of a broader journey toward cleaner powertrains. “The future does include these solutions,” he said, adding that avoiding decisions today could mean paying more tomorrow.
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