Despite a slight decline in reported cargo theft events in the first quarter of 2026, the total loss value remained relatively unchanged, according to a recent report.
On Thursday, April 23, CargoNet – a New Jersey-based cargo security firm – released its 2026 First Quarter Supply Chain Risk Trends Analysis. According to the company’s report, a total of 767 “supply chain crime events” were recorded in the first three months of 2026 – marking a 5.3% decrease when compared to the first quarter of 2025, and a 12.2% decline from the fourth quarter of last year.
The company said that despite fewer cargo theft incidents, the total estimated loss from those events remained “essentially unchanged” compared with the first three months of 2025.
Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at CargoNet, said that while the drop in cargo thefts is a step in the right direction, a new threat is emerging.
“The overall drop in incident volume is encouraging, but the underlying data tells a more complex story,” Lewis said in a statement. “We’re watching transnational organized crime groups become the dominant force in the cargo theft landscape, with a clear preference for goods that move easily through online resale channels. The geography is following the criminals.”
To Lewis’ point, CargoNet noted reduced cargo theft activity in Texas, a state that regularly ranks among the top three most targeted states.
According to the company’s report, the Lone Star State saw a 22% decrease in reported thefts in the first quarter of 2026. The company noted that among the top eight states for cargo theft, most saw declines when compared to the previous year. CargoNet said that much of that decline can be attributed to a shift in criminal patterns, where thieves have ditched “opportunistic theft” in favor of “more targeted operations elsewhere in the country”.
Meanwhile, California – which is perennially at the top of the list for cargo theft activity – saw an increase in incidents in Q1. New Jersey saw a sharp uptick in cargo crimes with a 119% increase over the previous quarter. In its report, the company said the two states share something that is driving the rise in theft.
“Both states are primary operating environments for organized crime networks, offering dense logistics infrastructure and proximity to major consumer markets,” CargoNet said.
In addition to cargo theft hotspots shifting in the first quarter, the company also noted an increase in “impersonation-based fraud”. CargoNet said that many criminal networks have “settled on impersonating legitimate carriers and logistics brokers” to steal cargo.
“The anti‑fraud tools the industry has deployed are working, they’re forcing criminals to invest more in elaborate schemes,” Lewis said. “But the shift toward credential theft and carrier impersonation means the industry needs to think beyond tender‑phase controls. We need robust identity verification throughout the lifecycle of a shipment, from booking to delivery.”
The company concludes in its report that it expects this type of fraud to remain a central focus of cargo thieves over the coming months. Additionally, CargoNet said that criminal groups will continue to prioritize high-value goods in areas that support “rapid movement and resale” of the cargo. LL
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