A recent freight market outlook said all signs point to a continued recession.
In its June freight market update, the OOIDA Foundation noted that volume/demand is dropping. Capacity is easing, rates are decreasing and operating costs remain steady.
The Total Spot Market Cycle Indicator revealed concerning data in manufacturing, housing and trucking. Rates are under pressure due to low demand and excess capacity.
Van market
Demand was stronger in the Southeast and South Central regions. Four of six regions reported a decrease.
Rates increased in most regions but are 11 cents per mile below the three-year moving average.
“We’re beginning to see the anticipated slowdown in the improvement of sales and inventory ratios,” the Foundation said. “The data released over the next few months will be crucial in revealing the effects of ongoing uncertainty.”
Household appliances wholesalers have performed well since late 2023. However, this may change due to tariff uncertainty.
Flatbed market
A seasonal decrease in demand was reported. All regions also experienced a decline in rates minus any fuel surcharges.
May’s flatbed composite index fell, mainly due to a drop in architectural and structural metals, as well as mining and oil and gas field machinery.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield increased in May, as did the median price for existing single-family homes year-over-year in April.
Tariff worries = early freight moves.
Shippers pulled freight forward ahead of new tariffs, driving a spike in ton-miles and tightening capacity. Want to know what that means for rates and flatbed lanes? ➡️ https://t.co/e44dmnbdE5#Flatbed #DATMarketUpdate #Tariffs…
— DAT Freight & Analytics (@datfreightteam) June 26, 2025
Reefer market
Demand ratios were best in the Southeast and Northeast.
Rates increased for the second consecutive month but were lower than a year prior.
“Despite the recent growth, volumes are substantially lower than where we were in 2019, which is a bad indicator for freight demand,” the Foundation said.
Tariffs could further impact capacity by raising prices for farmers.
Trucking market
The Cass Shipment Index said trade negotiations in the coming months will be crucial.
“The trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession further as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes,” Cass said. “With demand outlook choppy, the rate upturn remains elusive.”
For-hire carrier entries were expected to rise, but they have turned negative as of April.
Utilization fell in the first half of May before increasing in the second half of the month, according to the Logistics Managers’ Index.
Diesel prices were down month-over-month and year-over-year. There is some fear Brent crude oil prices could increase over $100 per barrel due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. However, analysts believe prices will drop below $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Used truck prices moved closer to flipping positive in May.
Freight market
Wages and salaries grew year-over-year in April. The Consumer Price Index also rose in May.
A full recovery from the manufacturing recession is unlikely for now. Ongoing tariff uncertainty is to blame.
The employment index increased but remained contracted.
Rare earth restrictions being imposed are a high concern in the near term.
C.H. Robinson reports that rail carriers are letting the gap grow between over-the-road truckload rates and intermodal spot rates while truckload rates fluctuate.
The full Foundation freight market outlook is online. LL
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