Until demand strengthens, analysts expect the freight market to remain in flux.
In its March freight market outlook, the OOIDA Foundation said the appearance of the early stages of a new cycle is misleading.
“Recent improvements in spot rates appear to be driven by tighter capacity, not stronger demand,” the Foundation said. “For now, the market remains in a holding pattern until a more durable, demand-led recovery takes hold.”
Van market
Demand was mostly up and more favorable for carriers in the Midwest and Northeast.
Rates increased in four of six regions and have stayed above the three-year moving average for four consecutive months.
Miscellaneous durable goods wholesalers, grocery wholesalers and plastics and rubber manufacturing drove the rise in the composite index.
Flatbed market
Demand levels were in line with seasonal patterns and more pronounced than last year.
Rates rose with demand and were higher in all regions, with the largest increase in the Northeast.
The seasonally adjusted flatbed composite index fell in February for the first time in three months. A modest gain is expected in March.
Reefer market
A February decline in demand was less severe compared to the previous year.
Spot rates also fell, but are higher year-over-year.
A reduction in food manufacturing drove an overall decline across industrial and wholesale sectors.
Trucking market
Rates have begun a supply-driven recovery even amid soft freight demand, according to the Cass Shipment Index.
“After the Supreme Court ruling lowering tariffs and as driver availability had started to tighten, momentum in the spot market was building,” Cass said. “An extra $1 per gallon (for fuel) will cause many of those good fleet drivers who are considering striking out on their own in the spot market to stay put.”
Estimated for-hire carrier entries increased in February after declining in the previous month.
Cost pressures had begun to ease, but were still elevated by historical standards.
On March 9, diesel prices jumped 96 cents per gallon, the largest week-over-week increase on record.
Used truck sales exceeded historic averages.
“Rather than signaling a surge in demand, the uncharacteristically strong showing seems to indicate a catch-up from weather-related softness in January,” Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research, said.
Freight market
U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, but grew at a slower pace.
The Housing Market Index indicated 37% of builders cut prices in March, a 1% increase from February. The use of sales incentives exceeded 60% for the 12th consecutive month.
C.H. Robinson expects intermodal interest to strengthen during the second half of 2026, especially in specific segments, provided trucking contract rates increase. LL
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