Certain oil and fuel supply, demand and prices are forecast to drop in the latest EIA short-term energy outlook.
These declines are expected not only across U.S. markets but also globally.
EIA said it expects the low price of crude oil to affect both U.S. production and fuel prices in the short term.
Crude oil
Rising global oil inventories will drive a lowering of crude oil prices, according to the EIA June forecast. The Brent crude oil spot price fell for the fourth consecutive month to an average of $64 per barrel. By the end of the year, that average is expected to fall to $61 per barrel before averaging $59 per barrel in 2026.
After a record high in the second quarter of 2025, U.S. crude oil production is forecast to drop through the fourth quarter of 2026 due to a decrease in active drilling rigs combined with declining oil prices.
Diesel is expected to drop from a national average per gallon of $3.51 in the second quarter of 2025 to $3.44 in the third quarter. Starting in late 2025, increases to the national average diesel price are expected, with $3.62 per gallon forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026.
June #STEO forecasts:
We expect the Brent crude oil price to fall to near $60/barrel by the end of the year and to average about $59 per barrel in 2026.
We expect the low price of crude oil to affect:
🔵 U.S. crude oil production
🔵 Retail gasoline prices pic.twitter.com/0TZA0OvXXg— EIA (@EIAgov) June 10, 2025
Electricity and natural gas
Demand for retail electricity sales as well as total U.S. electricity generation are predicted to increase, according to EIA.
“We expect higher natural gas prices this summer will result in less generation from natural gas-fired power plants compared with last summer, which is expected to be offset by more generation from coal, solar and hydro,” EIA said.
Trade war
EIA also said its macroeconomic forecast assumes lower tariffs on China’s products compared to the agency’s previous outlook, as well as 10% tariffs on countries subject to the 90-day temporary suspension due to S&P Global finalizing its model before the May ruling to halt the implementation of all reciprocal tariffs.
This difference in tariff rates likely has offsetting effects on the macroeconomic forecast, according to EIA.
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available on the agency’s website. LL
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