For years, the American Trucking Associations has told Congress, federal regulators and the media that there is a driver shortage. Over that same time span, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association has said the claims are false.
Earlier this week, the longtime debate entered its next chapter as the OOIDA Foundation released a one-page report that takes a closer look at ATA’s annual projections of how many truck drivers will be needed. ATA represents trucking’s large carriers, while OOIDA serves small-business truckers and individual drivers.
Analyzing reports back to 2015, the OOIDA Foundation’s analysis points out large discrepancies in ATA’s projections. In ATA’s 2015 report, it predicted a shortage of 73,500 drivers by 2016 and 160,000 by 2023. By the time ATA released the 2016 and 2023 reports, however, the organization indicated that its projections were off by 50% and 62.5%, respectively.
In addition, ATA has never provided the methodology for how it arrives at these numbers.
OOIDA Executive Vice President Lewie Pugh and Andrew King of the OOIDA Foundation joined Land Line Now to discuss the report and dispel the driver shortage claims.
“It just highlights that whatever methodology they’re using – which they never tell you how they’re arriving at their number – is absolutely wrong and false,” King said.
Trucking policies can’t be based on projections that drastically miss the mark, he added. ATA’s projection of the driver shortage for 2023, for example, went from 160,000 to 60,000.
“That’s a 62.5% reduction,” King said. “That’s huge when you’re talking about stats. That’s a huge miss. And, of course, it’s not just a 62% reduction. The whole thing is off. There’s not a driver shortage. Just looking at basic dynamics of the labor market and trucking show that there has never been a long-term driver shortage.”
OOIDA has long argued that trucking has a driver retention problem rather than a shortage. Turnover rates at large fleets are often at 90% or higher, and statistics from the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators show that states issue more than 400,000 new commercial driver’s licenses each year.
OOIDA suggests that instead of claiming a shortage and asking the government to step in, large fleets should be doing more to improve the profession so that drivers stay in the industry.
“For far too long, this narrative has been out there on driver shortage,” Pugh said. “We all know that there is no driver shortage. There’s a driver turnover problem. You could say that there’s somewhat of an experienced driver shortage … but there is no driver shortage.”
OOIDA isn’t alone in its assessment. A 2019 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics determined that there wasn’t a shortage, and FreightWaves recently published an article refuting ATA’s shortage claims.
In July, NBC News reported that truckers were coping with low freight rates due to overcapacity in the industry.
“Just recently, the chief economist for ATA made a statement about how the freight market was soft and that there’s too much capacity,” King said. “And by capacity, they mean too many trucks and too many drivers. You can’t have too many trucks and too many drivers and have a driver shortage. That’s ridiculous and doesn’t make sense.”
OOIDA contends that the debate over whether there’s a driver shortage isn’t just about who’s right and who’s wrong. ATA has used the claims of a shortage to promote such policies as lowering the interstate driving age to 18 and deploying driverless trucks.
“For far too long, policies, regulations and laws in Washington, D.C., have been driven and continue to be driven by this fake narrative that is being pushed by other organizations in the trucking world,” Pugh said. “Because everybody thinks we have this shortage, so we have to hurry up and get people driving trucks … No. What we need to do is slow down, stop and invest in the people who we are bringing in our industry so we can keep them in our industry.” LL
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