The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints largely stalled.
Traffic remains thin and tightly controlled, with vessels still required to coordinate with Iranian forces to pass, according to an April 8 report from maritime intelligence firm Windward.
“Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined. The strait has not reopened — it is in a supervised pause,” the firm wrote.
On Tuesday — the day before the ceasefire was announced — just 11 vessels transited the strait, according to Windward, far below the more than 100 ships that typically passed through daily before the war.
Wednesday’s activity showed little change. Five bulk carriers tracked outbound as of midday, all apparently confined to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-controlled corridor.
“Coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits,” Windward wrote.
“Iran has confirmed this operates ‘within technical limitations’ without specifying what those are but all signs are that the Islamic Republic is seeking to retain its leverage over the waterway during ceasefire negotiations,” the firm added.
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Limited return of shipping activity
Shipping behavior reflects that uncertainty.
Movements are dominated by smaller, risk-tolerant operators, while mainstream oil majors and large global shipping firms remain absent. Insurance constraints — particularly around war-risk coverage — continue to block a broader return.
Around 3,200 vessels carrying roughly 20,000 seafarers remain west of Hormuz as operators assess the risks, per Windward.
Windward said it could take weeks to move stranded oil and gas cargoes and months for global trade to reach pre-crisis levels, even in a best-case scenario.
“My sense is that it’s unlikely ships will move quickly — much as there is a lot of pent-up demand to get these cargoes moving, risks will need to be managed carefully given the lives and costs in play,” said Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst and partner at Baringa, a global consultancy.
Fraser said she expects oil prices to remain high in the meantime.
Crude futures rose early Thursday after a sharp sell-off on ceasefire news, but they remain well above pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel.
Brent crude oil futures were trading 2.5% higher around $97 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 3% to around $97.53 per barrel.
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