If the mood among fleets at Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue the past two years was “uncertainty,” this year it has shifted to “cautious optimism.”
“Last year, we had one outstanding week in all of 2025,” said James Burg, president and CEO of Michigan-based flatdeck hauler James Burg Trucking. “We have had two of those weeks so far in January, so I think the momentum is there.”
James Burg Trucking still has trucks parked against the fence, and Burg said a 10%-15% revenue increase would be needed before he’s ready to order trucks. But, he added, “That’s just one phone call. If we get a big program, we’re off to the races and I’m looking at orderbooks to see how quickly I can get these [orders] in.”
Nationalease president Dean Vicha shared the sentiment that 2026 should be a better year for fleets than last year. So much so that the company is beginning to order new trucks.
“I’m really cautiously optimistic,” he said during a panel discussion at Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue. “Our sales activity in the first couple weeks [of 2026] was really strong. We ordered a lot of trucks, trying to beat EPA27 [price increases].”
Nationalease’s confidence to order more trucks comes from stronger demand seen from leasing and rental customers, who typically don’t ask for trucks unless they have immediate freight to haul.
“You go bankrupt in this industry by having too many trucks. You never go bankrupt by not having enough,” Vicha said, while acknowledging there’s some urgency to get in orders before the EPA27 NOx rules jack up prices. “We think there’s only going to be a certain amount of time before OEMs sell out for 2026, then we start looking at 2027 pricing.”
Freight rates, used truck pricing and rental unit utilization are all strengthening, he noted, adding greater demand should materialize in the second and third quarters. “I think we’ll still be below what I’d call the pre-COVID average orders, but definitely higher than last year,” he added.
Shannon O’Brien, MEMA’s senior director of programming and strategy, shared results from the group’s annual member survey and said the majority of respondents expect the freight market to improve in the second half of 2026. However, she also pointed out it’s the third straight year respondents have felt that way.
“Cautious optimism” was again a theme that emerged from the survey, with members anticipating “modest growth” this year. “The prevailing expectation is a slow start to the year, followed by steadier improvement in the second half,” O’Brien said.
Most of the carrier executives sitting on a fleet panel at Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue said they didn’t order any trucks last year. Few are expecting to ramp up order activity this year, barring a sudden improvement in freight demand.
David Schnautz, president of Texas-based container hauler Clark Freight Lines, said he has turned to full-service leasing for the first time.
“The maintenance on the trucks was eating us up,” he said of the decision to lease units. “It seems like the OEM wasn’t concerned about getting our trucks out of the shops.”
This left the carrier renting units at its own expense to keep drivers moving and customers satisfied.
For bulk hauler Groendyke Transport, “2025 was the worse year we’ve had,” said vice president of maintenance Joseph Richley. Top line revenue declined while costs skyrocketed. Groendyke, a 750-truck fleet, purchased no power units last year and plans no orders this year. Nor has it ordered any new trailers, though its specialized trailers generally have 20-year lifecycles.
For farmer co-op CHS Inc., a fleet of 6,000 power units and 8,000 trailers, the business was challenged not only by rising costs but also tariff-related turmoil in the agricultural sector. Dennis Meyer-Razon, the fleet’s manager, transportation category, said the co-op was punished by tariffs on soybeans as well as less crude oil and fertilizer shipments from Canada.
Still, the company purchased 150 trucks last year and will add about 50 this year, he said.
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