New data from Motive suggests big box retail deliveries are up modestly this year, with growth of 3.5% thanks in part to a large jump in late September.
Its Big Box Retail Index tracks entries to and exits from distribution centers controlled by the Top 50 retailers in the United States.
“Broadly speaking, the economy is growing, yet not very quickly,” said Hamish Woodrow, head of strategic analytics and data engineering at Motive. “The retail sector is seeing moderate growth, in line with the rest of the United States.”
Heading into 2026, Motive anticipates single-digit growth to continue, but expects a post-Christmas drop. These were among highlights in Motive’s 2025-2026 Holiday Outlook Report.
The report also concluded that trucking is on the path to recovery, albeit slower than expected. Carrier exits have slowed to just 2,125 in October, down from more than 15,000 in October 2024 and 30,800 the year prior.
So, while capacity is shrinking the rate of exits has slowed, Motive reports. Woodrow described the 2025 market as a year of pause after a hard reset.
The market is “largely flat,” he says, with exits happening “at a much slower pace.”
“For every carrier that exits, another one is entering,” he added. He suggests the industry will see a stable peak season, a typical winter dip post-Christmas, and modest growth into the new year.
Imports from Mexico resilient, down sharply from China
Mexico has seen an increase in imports to the United States, despite the implementation of tariffs. Motive reports import volumes were up 6.5% year over year, so far this year, reflecting resilience.
Meanwhile, imports from China fell 35% year over year in July, reaching record lows, and are down 18.9% year to date compared to 2024.
“You can really see the import volumes dropping off,” Woodrow said. “2023 and 2024 were relatively consistent, but 2025 has been really impacted by tariffs — especially these last tariff discussions with 100% tariffs going up. There’s just a lot of uncertainty, a lot of impacts to overall imports coming from China.”
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