Another week in 2025, and another mixed bag of economic news. U.S. for-hire truck tonnage moved up to its highest levels since December 2023.
But the Canadian spot market was mostly dead in August. The U.S. spot market saw increasing freight demand but softening rates and ACT Research warns trade headwinds continue to stall any meaningful recovery.
Truck tonnage improves
U.S. for-hire truck tonnage rose to its highest levels since December 2023, according to August data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA).
Tonnage edged up 0.9% after a 1.1% move in July.
“The good news is that truck freight volumes had a nice end of the summer,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello. “However, while I’d like to predict a strong rebound in freight levels through the upcoming holidays, I can’t. I believe traditional seasonal patterns are off this year as shippers adjust to tariffs. Plus, housing remains soft, the slowing labor market is likely to show up in consumer spending at some point, and most manufacturing metrics are either decelerating or declining.”
Year to date, tonnage is up 0.1% over the same period last year.
Canadian spot market volumes decrease
August was the quietest month of the year for loads on the Canadian spot market, Loadlink Technologies reports.
Load postings plunged 14% from July and were down 40% year over year. Both domestic and cross-border loads saw decreases. Cross-border postings accounted for 58% of available loads, with southbound loads down 8% and Canada-bound loads down 20% from July.
Domestic loads were also down to the tune of 13%. The truck-to-load ratio climbed to 4.20 trucks per available load, a 10% increase from July and up 37% year over year.
Tariff headwinds blowing
Any positive momentum that would restore the freight market to balance has been stalled by trade wars, ACT Research reported in its Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook.
“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice-president and senior analyst. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.”
He added: “We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022-2024. Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from first half to second half this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand.”
Trucking conditions improved marginally in July
But if you’re looking for some positive news, FTR reports its Trucking Conditions Index improved in July to a reading of -1.03, from June’s -1.83 reading.
The worsening conditions were blamed on freight market deterioration.
“We do not see the market any stronger for carriers soon in the areas that matter most to them – freight rates and volume – but a recent preliminary revision of trucking employment estimates suggests tighter capacity than previously indicated,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president, trucking. “Meanwhile, other potential capacity stresses loom, including rising truck insurance costs and pressure on foreign drivers. Although our utilization forecast is still basically flat, the prospects have risen for improved freight volume to strengthen the truck freight market noticeably.”
Demand improves, but rates decline in U.S. spot market
Truckstop.com reported softening in broker-posted rates on the spot market the week ended Sept. 19, and warns that’s likely to continue for the next week or two.
Dry van and refrigerated spot rates fell for a third straight week. Flatbed spot rates have declined in 10 of the past 11 weeks, mirroring the same period in 2024.
“However, load postings were very strong for a second straight week, primarily driven by flatbed,” reported Truckstop.com. “The principal strength is the West Coast and Southeast regions, although flatbed is running strongly year over year in most regions. With a significant drop in truck postings, the Market Demand Index (MDI) rose to 96.4, the strongest level since the week in May that included the International Roadcheck inspection event. The MDI strength was concentrated mainly in flatbed and dry van.”
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