This week, we can anticipate a bump in spot market rates due to International Roadcheck, as those fearing the stepped-up enforcement activities typically park their trucks.
Surveys suggest shippers are optimistic about Q3 volumes, but they also express concerns about the impact tariffs could have on their business. And DAT Freight & Analytics chief of analytics suggests “the market feels frozen.”
Majority of carriers, O/Os worry about tariffs
A new survey from Bloomberg Intelligence and Truckstop has found 65% of small fleets and owner-operators believe tariffs will hinder the trucking industry. However, 55% are bullish about rate growth and 62% anticipate sustained demand.
“Carriers aren’t turning a blind eye to the potential volatility that could arise from tariffs,” said Lee Klaskow, senior freight transportation and logistics analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “However, most carriers believe rates and volumes still have some room to grow and many believe that the worst of the challenging freight conditions may be over.”
Truckload volumes were stronger in the first quarter, with 25% of respondents reporting year-over-year load growth, up 11% compared to the Q4 2024 survey. Bloomberg and Truckstop attribute that to a pull-forward of import activity ahead of tariffs.
Shipper conditions near neutral in February
Industry forecaster FTR reports its Shippers Conditions Index fell to -0.3 in February, down from January’s 0.6 reading, remaining in a near-neutral position.
Tighter capacity and stronger freight volumes were offset by lower fuel costs and weaker rates during the month. But FTR warns shippers are likely to see tougher conditions in Q2.
“The strong freight activity due mostly to the surge in imports to minimize tariff impacts has peaked, and we expect a much weaker freight environment by early summer,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice-president of trucking. “Shippers’ own volumes likely will suffer, but a silver lining – at least for traffic managers – is that freight market conditions in the second half should be better than what we had expected before we adjusted our economic and freight market forecasts to reflect the impact of tariffs. The outlook beyond 2025 is less clear as the longer-term effects of tariffs and potential for resolution of trade disputes are up in the air.”
Shippers expect greater activity in Q3
BlueGrace Logistics released its Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) for the third quarter, indicating 55% of shippers are forecasting growth – the highest response in more than a year. Respondents are expecting to see increased demand for sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and construction.
Shippers surveyed revealed varied approaches to managing tariffs, from accelerating purchases to get ahead of them, to minimizing inventory and exposure in hopes the pressure eases, BlueGrace Logistics reported.
“This quarter’s Index shows shippers navigating a more complex freight environment, with strong order optimism but growing divergence in strategy due to tariff uncertainty,” said Adam White, vice-president of marketing with BlueGrace Logistics. “As we track these shifting concerns, especially around pricing, capacity, and inventory posture, the LCI continues to offer a forward-looking lens into how the industry is adapting in real time.”
Truckload volumes slipped in April
DAT Freight & Analytics reported that spot truckload freight volumes in the U.S. slipped in April. Some of that could be due to seasonal trends, but it was likely also driven by a pull-forward in tariff-related stockpiling in the preceding months, the company said.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index was down 0.3% for van loads and 3.1% for reefer, while flatbed loads increased 2.5%. All were positive year over year.
“The market feels frozen,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics. “April brought the usual seasonal opportunities in produce and construction materials. But broader economic factors — including uncertainty over tariffs and the pull-forward of inventory this year — put a damper on growth in overall freight volumes, especially compared to previous years.”
Rates were down 3 cents/mile for van loads, flat for reefer, and up 4 cents/mile for flatdeckers.
Contract rates, meanwhile, edged higher from March but were down year over year. The spread between contract and spot rates increased for the fourth straight month.
“Carriers were hoping April rates would be a springboard into a stronger Q2,” Adamo said. “Instead, the optimistic case is that they’ve reached a pricing floor heading into the traditional summer peak shipping season in May and June. How ‘traditional’ the season looks has yet to be determined.”
Van rates rose in most recent week
Spot market van rates rose the week ended May 2, according to Truckstop and FTR. However, that’s typical for the week leading up to Mother’s Day.
Still, it was the first rise in dry van spot rates in four weeks, while refrigerated rates jumped the most seen so far this year. Flatbed rates fell for the second consecutive week, though they still continue to outperform van rates.
Truckstop suggests rates will spike this week due to International Roadcheck May 13-15.
“Many truck drivers take time off during that week to avoid the hassle and scrutiny of roadside inspections, resulting in a spike in spot rates,” the company noted.
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