The major shipping lines (that report on – and have so far published – their financial figures) have recorded a combined 2024 EBIT of $27.3 billion.
“In comparison, the combined EBIT for 2021 and 2022 was nearly $200 billion across the same set of shipping lines. That said, the 2024 level of profitability is still significantly higher than the pre-Covid years. In fact, the EBIT recorded in 2024 is higher than the combined EBIT of 2019, 2020 and 2023,” according to the latest update from Sea-Intelligence.
Given that the shipping lines covered do not make up the entirety of the market – notable absentees include MSC (privately held), PIL (rarely publish financial accounts) and CMA CGM (no longer publicly publish EBIT) – “we can estimate the total market profitability by extending the average profitability of the lines who have indeed disclosed their earnings to the market as a whole based on operated capacity. Clearly, this is an approximation but using this approach implies total industry profitability at the EBIT level of $60 billion in 2024.”
Figure 1 shows the EBIT/TEU of the shipping lines that report on both their EBIT and global volumes on an annual basis, the update added. “Although Maersk’s 192 EBIT/TEU is significantly lower than in 2021-2022, it is still higher than most of the pre-pandemic years whereas for ZIM (674 USD/TEU), HMM (622 USD/TEU), Hapag-Lloyd (215 USD/TEU) and OOCL (346 USD/TEU), it is the highest in the last decade outside of 2021-2022. For ONE, (300 USD/TEU), we do not have a pre-pandemic reference point.”
2025 outlook wobbly
Geopolitics and the Suez Canal developments are set to dominate the rest of 2025. Christian Roeloffs, Founder and CEO, Container xChange says: “It all depends on sort of what happens in Israel and Gaza. It all depends on what the Houthis are making of this. So, we do believe that there will be a correction this year in 2025 but how big of a correction this will be remains to be seen.
“If the Suez Canal opens up, there will be significant overcapacity and enhanced price war, sort of, that follows. If that happens, I think breaking even for the industry will be a significant challenge, and we’ll see losses across the board. I don’t have my crystal ball here with me, unfortunately, but definitely it’s going to be a correction that is coming this year. Just how much of a correction remains to be seen.”
The Drewry World Container Index declined seven percent to $2,368 per FEU for the week ended March 13 with Shanghai to Los Angeles down eight percent to $2,906 per 40ft container. “Similarly, rates from Shanghai to New York reduced seven percent to $4,038 per 40ft container and those from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped five percent to $2,512 per 40ft container.”
Drewry is expecting rates to decline from next week as shipping capacity increases.
Judah Levine, Head of Research, Freightos in his latest blog on TPM writes: “While there was consensus that carriers won’t return to the Red Sea until vessel safety is assured, no one was sure when that exactly will be, though some expressed optimism that a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire could happen this year and see the waterway re-open some time in H2. (One interesting insight was that falling demand and freight rates could incentivise carriers to go back sooner rather than later in an effort to reduce costs.)”
With the U.S. pounding the Houthis and the Israel action against Hamas, container shipping is set for a rocky ride in 2025.
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