Back in July 2021 when the American Trucking Associations and media outlets across the country were screaming that the sky was falling because of a truck driver shortage, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association and Land Line Magazine were singing a different tune.
In that month’s issue, Land Line’s cover story was titled, “The truth about the driver shortage (Psst … there isn’t one).”
While ATA was busy spreading that the industry had a shortage of 61,000 drivers and that the shortage would increase to 160,000 by 2028, Land Line relayed OOIDA’s message that the shortage narrative was a false one.
But with the COVID-19 pandemic keeping people at home and a temporary surge in demand, traditional media outlets, as well as social media, locked in on the idea that there was an overwhelming need for more truck drivers. Tempted by the promise of big paydays, thousands of new drivers entered the market.
On July 3, NBC News shared the story of truck driver Arnesha Barron and others like her who are now dealing with low rates because of overcapacity.
“But like thousands of other truck drivers across the country, Barron’s fortunes didn’t last long,” Shannon Pettypiece wrote in the article titled, “Truckers flooded the market during Covid. Now they struggle to pay their bills.” “Over the past year, shipping rates have tumbled, leaving her and other drivers who bet big on the trucking boom struggling to make a living.”
OOIDA President Todd Spencer told NBC that workers were lured to trucking based on promises from companies and social media influencers promoting the career as a way to get rich quick.
“Basically, the good times have come and gone,” Spencer said. “There’s a shakeout in the works right now, and it’s more than likely going to continue throughout this year.”
NBC reported that 15,000 trucking companies have shut down operations since October 2022.
Even so, ATA had still been telling everyone about the dangers of the driver shortage. At a driver compensation meeting in March, ATA’s Bob Costello used the meeting to tell the committee about the “shortage” and pressed for the interstate driving age to be lowered from 21 to 18 as the solution.
Also quoted in the NBC article, Costello backed off the premise that there is a current shortage of drivers but hinted that the dreaded shortage monster could return again.
“My concern is that when we do start to get more freight, these independent contractors are going to leave to do something else,” Costello told NBC. “So I would fully anticipate, whether it’s next year or at some point, we could absolutely have a situation where the driver shortage that lessened could just skyrocket back to all-time highs.”
Although large trucking companies would love to have a bullpen full of truck drivers just hanging around for someone to call them into the game, any true shortage will be reflected in an increase in demand and wages.
While ATA has maintained for decades that there aren’t enough drivers, OOIDA has held the opposite stance. And when thousands of drivers bought in to ATA’s message, many are paying the price because of overcapacity. LL
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