Insights into the year gone by in trucking and what’s ahead for the industry.
Image: HDT Graphic/A. Duie Pyle photos
As A. Duie Pyle wrapped up its 100th year in operation, its executives shared some key trends from 2024 and what they are keeping an eye on in 2025.
Pyle is a Northeast motor carrier offering less-than truckload, warehousing, and other supply chain solutions. It operates out of 31 facilities.
Looking Back at 2024 in Trucking
The year disappointed truckload as the prolonged freight recession continued to drag on. A year ago, most industry executives were expecting a mid-year inversion with conditions improving as the year progressed. In most modes, however, we continue to have a freight market of excess supply (capacity) relative to demand (freight).
The prolonged downturn has created a warehousing supply/demand imbalance. In the years following the pandemic, warehouses popped up everywhere. In 2024, companies reevaluated supply chain design and inventory positions as they were pressured to reduce costs.
Shippers had a short-term focus on cutting costs and taking advantage of the ample and cheap truckload capacity, limiting growth in the contract dedicated sector.
One trend that really took off? Box trucks are cementing their place in the market to fill a decades-long void between shipments that are too large for LTL and too small for TL.
Administration-Driven Changes for 2025 in Logistics
Anticipated changes in trade policy and tariffs will incentivize domestic production and near-shoring. Opportunities abound with anticipated changes in trade policy, as incentives for domestic production and near-shoring are likely to accelerate.
For Pyle and others in the less-than-truckload and dedicated business, this means a potential surge in demand for regional warehousing, LTL, and dedicated services as more businesses bring production closer to home.
Also expected with the change in administration, Pyle executives said, a business-friendly regulatory approach will streamline compliance requirements and reduce operational costs.
And the new administration’s emphasis on increasing oil and gas production signals a promising era of lower fuel costs.
Government investment in transportation infrastructure has the potential to elevate the entire logistics industry. Infrastructure improvements, from road expansions to upgraded ports, could mean smoother transit, shorter delivery times, and reduced wear on trucking fleets.
How Will TL, LTL, Warehousing and Brokers Fare in 2025?
Truckload in 2025
The truckload market is poised to experience its first non-catalyst driven improvement cycle in recent memory, and it will be a major learning curve if we spend a long time in equilibrium, Pyle executives believe.
Most employees at brokers, shippers, and carriers have only experienced rapid booms and bust cycles over the last decade.
Less-than-Truckload in 2025
- Any uptick in the economy will begin pressuring truckload capacity and amplifying the LTL supply-demand ratio, supporting price increases from LTL carriers.
- As truckload recovers, heavier-weight LTL shipments will likely begin to migrate from the truckload sector back to the LTL sector.
- An unknown at this juncture will be the impact of freight classification changes from the National Motor Freight Carriers.
2025 Predictions for Dedicated
- A return to traditional demand for 3PL providers and the truckload market finally swings and shippers move from cost control to securing reliable driver resources.
- An increase in RFP’s and potential shifting of carriers as a result of post-Covid contract expirations, and shippers focusing on service vs. simply capacity.
- Potential for specialized equipment needs as manufacturing reshores.
Warehousing in 2025
- Pyle executives are keeping an eye out for tightening of warehouse space in the second half, between the threat of tariffs and reduced new capacity entering the market. LTL will see a higher demand for precision delivery as companies manage tighter inventories.
- They project an immediate surge in storage needs for pre-tariff inventory.
- Value-added services are more important, such as kitting, packaging, and labeling.
Tough Times for Brokers
A. Duie Pyle executives believe the brokerage industry will retract this year, with bankruptcies and consolidations.
Multiple false predictions of market improvements in 2023 and 2024 have many non-logistics executives thinking that today’s pricing is the new norm because it is still above pre-Covid levels.
When factoring in inflation, however, prices are near levels seen in the Great Recession and have nowhere to go but up. Many non-logistics executives will be in for a rude awakening.
What are Shippers Looking For This Year?
When talking to customers, Pyle executives take away several things that shippers are looking for from their partners or anticipating happening in their industry in 2025:
- Customers are looking for unique solutions, stable relationships, and human interaction.
- In the brokerage world, personnel cuts have been deep, causing communication to suffer or be replaced by automation. Customers are looking for consistent relationships.
- Today, shippers increasingly seek consistent quality service at an affordable price that allows the shipper to be cost and service-competitive in its marketplace while providing well-managed carriers the resources to reinvest in its people and capital-intensive business.
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