Back-to-back winter storms created major disruptions across much of the country and certain markets within the EIA February outlook reflect that.
An FMCSA regional emergency, covering 40 states affected by winter weather, remains in effect through Feb. 20.
The EIA said frigid weather conditions in the U.S. led to a 3% drop in natural gas production in December and January.
“Winter Storm Fern caused significant short-term pressure on natural gas markets, but we expect higher prices in the near term will increase drilling, resulting in higher production later this year and helping to replenish storage,” said EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey. “Ultimately, this will result in lower natural gas prices next year than we had forecast.”
Weather-related events also disrupted the global crude oil supply, as did escalating tensions with Iran, EIA said.
Both are expected to be short-term effects.
EIA is forecasting Brent crude oil to average $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 per barrel in 2027.
U.S. consumption of total distillate fuel oil is expected to increase by 2% in 2026 and reach record highs in 2027, according to the EIA.
Diesel specifically is forecast to fall nearly 20 cents from the first quarter of 2026 to a national average of $3.37 per gallon by the third quarter. Increases are expected in 2027, with prices forecast to average above $3.50 per gallon by the end of the year.
Fuel prices are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.
Higher electricity demand reflects increased economic activity and growth in data centers, primarily in Texas and the mid-Atlantic region. EIA said most of this demand will be met with increased renewable electricity generation.
Venezuelan oil production and exports remain a key uncertainty in EIA’s forecast. The country’s crude oil exports began to recover in January. Expanded U.S. licenses are expected to restore typical production in Venezuela by mid-2026, according to EIA.
The full short-term energy outlook is available on the EIA website. LL
February Short-Term Energy Outlook:
🔵 EIA raises natural gas price forecast following increased heating demand amid severe winter weather
Full #STEO report here ➡️https://t.co/3NNBrhTL7E pic.twitter.com/vftKwqv9qv
— EIA (@EIAgov) February 10, 2026
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