Typical seasonal decreases in freight combined with the looming threat of tariffs had a negative impact on trucking jobs in February, with potentially more job losses on the horizon.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 2,000 trucking jobs were eliminated from the economy in February. That continues the trucking industry’s purge of excess drivers following a surge of new motor carriers in the wake of the pandemic. Since January 2023, employment in trucking has decreased in all but five months.
Preliminary numbers suggested trucking jobs began to rally from November through January. However, revised data shows that employment is up by only 600 jobs from October, significantly down from the previously reported gain of 7,000 jobs in January. Compared to last February, truck driver jobs are down by more than 15,000.
The “noisy signals” coming from the latest employment report from the federal government syncs up with the “back and forth in freight market sentiment,” according to David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics. Spencer said seasonal slowdowns and clarity around the impact of tariffs lowered expectations from the previous month, when stakeholders were more optimistic about trucking conditions.
More trucking jobs may be lost if the current freight environment does not show signs of significant improvement.
“The most likely scenario moving forward is a gradual downward trend in total employment as trucking companies continue to fight off lower levels of profitability and rightsize their operations to be as efficient as possible until we see a meaningful shift in market conditions,” Spencer said.
Jason Miller, an associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, told Land Line Now that President Donald Trump’s tariffs can be good for some trucking companies but bad for others. However, he expects the losses to outweigh the gains.
“If you’re a trucking company, you now need to start sort of planning for one of those ‘not-good-case scenarios’ for how 2025 could work out,” Miller said.
Listen below to Land Line Now’s full interview with Jason Miller, associate professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business:
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association said that although it is too soon to know how the tariffs may impact the trucking industry, they could slow down the anticipated recovery from the freight recession.
“Tariffs on America’s trade partners have the potential to inhibit the recovery from a freight recession that has been acutely felt by America’s small-business truckers, but it is too early to make predictions on specific downstream economic effects,” the Association said. “OOIDA’s trade experts will continue to monitor the effects of these policies as trade negotiations develop and will keep our Association members informed.”
Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment increased by nearly 18,000 jobs in February.
The transportation sector’s net increase was almost entirely due to a surge of 23,500 courier and messenger jobs. Employment in most of the subsectors was virtually stagnant, with the exception of 3,500 more air transport jobs and losses in transit/ground passenger transportation (minus 4,100) and warehousing/storage (minus 3,100).
Month to month, wages were up in February. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector saw a $1.52 increase to $1,186.43. Compared to February 2024, hourly earnings increased to $31.10 from $30.38. Accounting only for production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings increased from $1,115.54 in January to $1,116.99. Year-to-year, hourly earnings rose by 55 cents to $29.59.
Across all industries, the nation gained 151,000 jobs, falling just shy of many economists’ projections of 160,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. Reuters is reporting that some economists believe Trump’s erratic trade policy is leaving businesses in a state of uncertainty, suggesting companies may be hesitant to bring in more employees.
The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for the transportation sector plummeted by 1.2 percentage points to 4.7%. That is still above the pre-pandemic December 2019 level of 2.8% but far below the 15.7% high in May and July 2020. LL
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