Demand for new trailers is weak, and expected to remain so, until freight demand recovers in the second half of 2026 and in 2027.
That was the grim news Dan Moyer, senior analyst – commercial vehicles, delivered at industry forecaster FTR’s 2025 Transportation Conference in September. Order season has seen a 5% decline in activity and July orders plunged 39% from June. Cancellation rates are also high, as buyers contemplate the effect tariffs will have on new trailer prices.
FTR’s Moyer says van trailers are likely to see prices rise 16-28% due to tariffs, particularly due to those on steel and aluminum. Production rates continue to be above demand, meaning manufacturers will have to be disciplined about managing their production rates to avoid flooding the market.
However, if you’re looking for some good news, Moyer said trailer inventories appear to be “broadly healthy.” FTR forecasts trailer production orders of just 187,000 units this year, down sharply from 230,000 last year and even more so from the 314,000 seen in 2023.
The impact on manufacturers
Trailer makers are feeling that pain today. Charles Dutil, CEO of Manac, said when freight markets are tough, buyers respond by sitting on their wallets and sweating out their existing assets.
“A fleet with 50 trucks will usually replaces10, 12, or 15 trailers per year,” he said. “When we enter a period like the one we’re in now, carriers don’t go from 12 to nine or eight trailers — they go from 12 to zero. They simply decide not to replace a single trailer and don’t need growth in their fleet. Our customers can easily delay renewing their equipment.”
And then there’s the added uncertainty around tariffs and just how much cost will be passed through to the customer.
Alan Briley, president of Fontaine Trailer Company, said during the FTR Transportation Conference, “We’re seeing it in our costs. We have seen challenges with some of our component manufacturers who have a part of their manufacturing offshore and we’re just trying to navigate that. We don’t really know what it’s going to cost at the point where we order some things.”
Fontaine is looking at diversifying its supply chain, but Briley also worries nearshoring will raise new challenges such as the availability of labor. They key for trailer manufacturers, he said, is to be more transparent than ever with suppliers so they understand what future demand will look like and be prepared to ramp up production when trailer demand recovers.
Extended life-cycles
John Foss, vice-president of national accounts with Trailcon Leasing has seen his share of cycles. This one feels different.
“For over 20 years, we’ve seen sizeable ups and downs in our market and to be quite honest, I’ve never seen one like this before,” he said in an interview.
Higher interest payments and a weak exchange rate are putting even more pressure on trailer buyers already struggling with weak profitability. Trailer prices became inflated due to the post-Covid surge in demand and never did come back down to traditional levels.
“I think this could be the new reality on what trailers cost right now,” Foss said of current pricing. And that’s even before tariffs were imposed. “Certainly, I think there’s no confidence [among customers] to go out and place great big orders for new equipment.”
Instead, many fleets are extending the lives of their existing trailers. Mandatory annual inspections are meant to ensure any trailers on the highway are well maintained and safe to operate, but every piece of equipment can only be run for so long.
Trailcon itself is extending the life-cycle of its own fleet of 12,000 trailers and its service business has seen a surge in demand as fleets look to get another year or two of use out of their own equipment. Foss has seen instances where trailers that should have been taken off the road continue to be operated.
“You see them running on the [Hwys.] 400 and 401 with their decals peeled off and some no-name trucking company [pulling them]. That’s especially concerning when we take a trailer out of service because it’s not worth repairing or it’s just not repairable and we send it to the auction or dispose of it through a wholesale means and next thing you know we see it on the road again and someone else is running it. There are safety concerns in that sense.”
That concern has caused Trailcon to change how it manages its trailers at the end of their useful life. It’s now working with a salvage company that last year dismantled, ground up and recycled about 400 of its van trailers.
“We saved what we could, like tires and rims and certain parts that were viable for another life, but the vans themselves all got ground up – literally through a grinder – and recycled,” Foss said.
Jason Hirsch is vice-president of sales for Penguin Trailers and he says inspection programs like Ontario’s DriveOn regulate maintenance standards for trailers to some degree, and he feels the program has improved the general level of trailer safety in the province.
But while Dutil said those annual inspection requirements are helpful, he added “What we don’t have in our industry is a maximum service life requirement for equipment. If we were making school buses or fire trucks, after a certain number of years they must be retired from active operation. We don’t have that for commercial trucks or semi-trailers. After 18 to 20 years for a semi-trailer, you start seeing wear, structural fatigue, and higher risks of breakdowns.”
Spec’ing and maintaining for longer life
Hirsch inspects about 1,500 to 2,000 trailers a year with the intent of reselling them and sees the good, the bad and the ugly.
“This really is reflective of who owns the asset and what checkpoints they have instituted in their maintenance program,” he said. “The life of the trailer can be prolonged by a solid maintenance program.”
A few years ago, Hirsch inspected a group of 2007 dry vans that were used for city cartage. He couldn’t believe how good they looked.
“They looked like they were only a few years old,” he said. So, he asked the owner how he kept them in such great condition. “His answer was simple. He said ‘I touch these trailers every 90 days and wash them twice a year. I did this since the day I bought them.’ Regular care is so key.”
In addition to getting additional life out of the trailer, Hirsch said a well-maintained unit will also command a 20-30% premium when it’s time to sell or trade it in. “Clean equipment always sells,” he added.
The initial spec’ is also important. Manac’s Dutil notes a semi-trailer is an investment, a “utilitarian asset,” – not a luxury good. So, consider how it will be used and spec’ it to withstand that use case.
“If it’s a van hauling concentrated loads like paper rolls or other heavy materials, then the investment and structural design are more important than for a semi-trailer transporting retail goods,” he explained.
Manac emphasizes durable coupling plates and general structural demands capable of handling Canada’s heavy payloads. And heavier weights aren’t the only factor to consider when spec’ing a unit for use in Canada, there’s also additional corrosion concerns.
“Galvanization is important,” he added. “Corrosion is usually what kills a unit, more so than structural fatigue. Investing between $1,500 and $3,500 to galvanize certain components — at Manac, we are convinced this adds useful years to a trailer’s life. It’s a profitable investment.”
The good times will return
While trucking companies and trailer makers are both sharing the economic pain at the moment, Manac’s Dutil reminds fleets the industry will turn, and warns that demand for not just freight – but trailers – will also return.
“Honestly, my advice to fleet managers right now is, don’t wait too long before reordering,” he said. “And I mean that sincerely, because the cyclicality of this industry means we swing from feast to famine. For 35 years, I’ve seen this cycle: fleets stop renewing, and then suddenly, by spring or summer 2026, hopefully, economic conditions improve, fleet ages will have risen, and renewal will return in full force. Order books will explode and so will prices.”
Hirsch agreed, adding that maintaining a consistent replacement cycle has three benefits: it drives down overall maintenance costs; reduces breakdowns and downtime; and presents a cleaner image to customers. And in this market, fleets would be wise to consider any advantage they can get over the competition.
- With files from David Simard-Jean, Transport Routier
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