Trade policies major factor in latest EIA outlook

Fluctuation regarding U.S. trade policies, specifically the implementation of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, heavily weighed into the Energy Information Administration’s latest short-term energy outlook.

As of Tuesday, March 11, when EIA released its report, the exact date those tariffs would be implemented was still uncertain.

“The implementation of tariffs for most imports from Mexico and Canada have been delayed until early April, so the effects of those potential tariffs are not reflected in this outlook,” EIA said. “Our outlook does include a tariff on U.S. imports from China and also includes an assumption about China’s imposition in February of tariffs on U.S. energy products.”

EIA added that it expects global oil markets to remain tight through mid-2025 before shifting to inventory builds. The Brent crude oil spot price is forecast to average $75 per barrel by the third quarter of 2025.

Based upon expected downward pressure in late 2025 and through 2026, EIA said that the average crude oil price will fall to $68 per barrel in 2026.

Natural gas inventories will increase due to cold weather in January and February that led to large withdrawals. EIA is now forecasting natural gas inventories to fall below the previous five-year average at the end of March, while higher consumption will lead to higher prices through 2026.

The national average price per gallon for diesel is forecast to decline from $3.65 to around $3.60 in the second and third quarters of 2025. By the end of the year, that price is expected to reach nearly $3.70 per gallon.

Updated fuel prices are available on this Land Line resources page.

The full EIA short-term outlook can be found here. LL

Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.

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