It’s been a year. A year ago, there was hope 2024 would be defined by the end of a persistent trucking recession and the return to more prosperous times for the industry. There was hope capacity would come back into balance with freight demand, and rates would improve.
There was hope inflation would be tamed and trucking costs would level off, if not decrease. There was hope the government would get serious about enforcing issues around driver misclassification and restore fairness to the marketplace.
Within the context of all that, it’s hard to describe 2024 as anything other than a disappointment for most in the industry. However, trucking also showed its resiliency in 2024. And better times surely await as the calendar turns to 2025.
Pour yourself a rum and egg nog – or whatever Christmas libation you prefer – and join us as we recap an unforgettable, if painful, year. I’ve also gone out on a limb, making some bold predictions for how each of these issues will evolve in 2025. Just don’t hold me to them.
The Mother of Trucking Recessions continues
It was a tough year for the trucking industry as 2024 – from beginning to end – was marred by an ongoing (two years and counting) freight recession. But was it really a freight recession? FTR chairman Eric Starks said during the company’s annual conference it was more like a “rate recession.”
Freight has been steady, albeit unspectacular. But the real pain came from excess capacity that stubbornly managed to hang on through the year, coupled with rapidly rising operational costs. American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello described it as a “stagflation” environment, in which rates fell at the same time costs soared. “It’s a horrible place to be,” he admitted.
However, in his much-anticipated economic outlook in the fall, he predicted a return to a more “normal” operating environment in 2025. You’ll be forgiven for not popping the champagne for a forecast of ‘normal’ but after two straight years of hardship, fleets are unlikely to complain if we return to a more typical pre-Covid-type environment.
2025 Prediction: Trucking conditions can’t get worse, so they have to get better
Pride empire falls
The most notable victim of trucking’s recession was Pride Group of Companies, which sought creditor protection in late March. Bankruptcy proceedings pulled back the curtains on an expansive and complex organization whose tentacles seemingly reached to every aspect of the industry.
Truck and trailer sales. Factoring. Real estate. Trucking and logistics. Electric vehicle sales. Pride entities were involved in all of it.
Nine months on, the assets belonging to Pride Group Entities continue to be dispersed to creditors. However, and not without controversy, the trucking and logistics entity known as Pride Group Logistics was sold back to the founding Johal family, who put forth the only offer that would allow for a going-concern sale of the trucking outfit.
2025 Prediction: A name change for Pride Group Logistics
Immigration
The federal government has in recent years taken an aggressive position on increasing immigration, and few industries were more affected than trucking. Despite being in a two-year freight recession with good paying trucking jobs in short supply, the feds issued a record number of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for truck drivers.
This invited fraud. TruckNews.com spoke to foreign truck drivers who were illegally forced to pay for the LMIAs that brought them here. In some instances, they were beholden to the companies that provided those LMIAs and forced to run illegally. Some had pay withheld or were shortchanged, while others were not paid at all. Wage theft became an issue and truckers organized to protest such activities.
A sudden proliferation of new truck driving schools – particularly in Ontario – emerged as schools looked to profit on the influx of new drivers. Now, facing fierce criticism over its handling of immigration, the Liberal government is trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube with reforms that will curtail the influx of foreign students and temporary workers.
The reversal of some of these immigration policies have left driving schools with empty classrooms and cut-rate promotions to try to keep the lights on. (We even heard of a ‘Black Friday Sale’ offering MELT training for $3,000). This is an issue that will continue into 2025 and likely beyond.
2025 Prediction: A fresh Conservative government will try to fix Trudeau’s mess, but it won’t be easy
Misclassification of drivers continues…and spreads
No industry event, no panel discussion, could be held in 2024 without talk returning to the controversial subject of driver misclassification, otherwise dubbed Driver Inc. The feds remained seemingly disinterested in cracking down on the practice, which classifies company drivers as independent contractors (they aren’t) so fleets can offload tax burdens onto the driver to pay themselves (they don’t).
It’s costing the Canadian economy billions of dollars in unpaid taxes, the Canadian Trucking Alliance contends, while also giving the scofflaw carriers a pricing advantage in the market of up to 30%.
The crisis has spread beyond Ontario’s borders, spilling over into other provinces. Notably Quebec took a hard stance on the issue in the past year with the Quebec Trucking Association adding its voice to the chorus of organizations decrying the practice. Still, the feds seemingly have little will to step in and crack down, preferring to take an educational approach over stiff penalties that would snuff out the problem altogether.
2025 Prediction: More of the same. Some provincial wins may be in the cards, but the feds have provided nothing beyond lip service to suggest they have any appetite to step in with meaningful enforcement
Trucking gets cleaner, but challenges arise
Canada’s trucking industry continued to get greener over the past year. Canada has proven to be one of the top markets for Volvo’s VNR Electric, a battery run truck that produces no tailpipe emissions.
The first hydrogen-fueled Nikola trucks were deployed in Canada, with the uptake led by private fleets with strong sustainability ambitions. But the push toward zero emissions hasn’t been without its challenges, either.
The uptake of electric vehicles was slower than expected for Canadian startups, with both Vicinity Motor Corp. and Lion Electric seeking creditor protection and/or entering receivership. There continues to be a lack of publicly available charging infrastructure that will accommodate heavy trucks, and range and payload limitations continue to make them a niche product well suited for only a fraction of the lanes and loads Canadian truckers run and haul.
Worst of all, a popular – seemingly too popular – incentive program in Quebec ran out of money and was suspended, leaving dealers with inventory that’s now proving difficult to move and electric trucks with sticker prices fleets just can’t afford without the promised incentives. The election of Donald Trump to president south of the border has also raised questions about whether or not aggressive environmental regulations that are forcing the industry toward zero-emission vehicles will be maintained.
2025 Prediction: Private fleets will continue to invest in zero-emission trucks. For-hire fleets will be more focused on refreshing their diesel fleets ahead of costly EPA27 emissions standards, which will drive up truck prices by US$20,000 or more
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