After several years of nearly nonstop growth, trucking freight crossing the borders has been on a downward skid for most of the year, likely the result of heavy-handed tariffs and driver-centric policies.
According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ latest data, cross-border trucking freight dropped 3% year-over-year in September. Compared to August, freight increased by 2% after sinking 7% compared to the previous year.
This marks the fifth year-over-year decrease in six months. Before April, North American trucking freight fell only four times in the previous 53 months.
Cross-border trucking freight movement has been closely correlated with President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. In March, trucking freight at the borders jumped 9.5% as businesses frontloaded inventories ahead of tariffs that were set to begin in April.
Since then, international trucking freight has been falling every month except July. Although tariffs were paused until July, most frontloading had been complete by April. In July, Trump announced a one-month extension, which set off another wave of frontloading, albeit much smaller.
In addition to tariffs, policies enforcing English proficiency and going after non-domiciled CDLs may also have had an effect on cross-border trucking freight. In its fourth quarter market update and outlook, Uber Freight notes that 70% of B1 Mexican drivers may not meet the standards.
In August, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a pause on all truck driver worker visas. That pause included H-2B, E-2 and EB-3 visas. B-visa drivers under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement have kept their authorization.
Nearly all of the losses in cross-border trucking freight have come from the northern border.
So far this year, freight in and out of Canada has dropped every month except January and March. More than half of those losses were double digits.
Conversely, Mexican freight has gone up every month except April and August. Both of those months were supposed to be start dates for tariffs. Driving the uptick of freight at the southern border has been computer-related imports, which have increased anywhere from 21% to 56% in any given month.
Accounting for all transport modes, cross-border freight dropped by 4% in September, the sixth consecutive decrease for the year. The largest decline was in vessel freight (minus 19%), followed by rail (minus 10.5%). Airfreight was the only mode to haul more cargo (6%). LL
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