With tariffs yet to be put in place, North American trucking freight increased in February, largely the result of a surge in a certain commodity out of Mexico that has been propping up cross-border for a year.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at nearly $87 billion was hauled across the borders in February. That was a 4% increase compared to February 2024 but a 1% drop from the previous month. Trucking freight tends to go down month-to-month in February.
With a two-month reporting delay, the most recent cross-border freight numbers do not reflect President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Trump initially issued tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. However, he then delayed the new tax on North American goods for 30 days, limiting any effects on cross-border freight in February.
February’s year-to-year increase expanded on an upward trajectory that began in November 2020. Only four decreases had occurred between then and September 2024, three of which happened within the seven-month period between December 2023 and June 2024.
Cross-border freight hauled by trucks across the U.S. northern border dipped by 1% compared to February 2024. At the southern border, trucking freight jumped by 7%.
Tariffs may have played a limited role in the discrepancy.
All but one of Canada’s top 10 truck commodities experienced year-to-year declines. Pearls/stones/metals/imitation jewelry, the third-most-valuable commodity, skyrocketed by more than 230%. It was the ninth most valuable commodity last October before a 65% increase in November, a 146% increase in December and a 142% increase in January shot the commodity up the ladder.
At the Mexican border, the top two commodities saw year-to-year growth: computer-related parts (39% increase) and electrical machinery (3% increase). Computer-related trucking freight out of Mexico had been rallying for just over a year, with double-digit increases in 12 of the previous 14 months.
Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (up 2%), iron/steel (down 5%) and paper (up 2%). In Mexico, the top three commodities were edible vegetables/roots (down 6%), vehicles (down 5%) and computer-related parts (up 5%).
Freight Transportation Research Associates’ (FTR) February Trucking Conditions Index remained in the red. Looking at volumes, rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices and financing, a negative score indicated pessimistic conditions.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, attributed the negative score to tariffs.
“With global tariffs and a full-fledged trade war against China, we have reduced our economic and freight forecasts due to expectations of higher inflation and interest rates and a weaker labor market coupled with a payback from elevated imports in the first quarter to avoid tariffs,” Vise said in a statement. “With this change, we expect that near-term truck freight market conditions will be more challenging for carriers, postponing a sustained recovery until early next year.”
Cross-border freight numbers for March will likely show another boost once released in May. In anticipation of tariffs announced earlier in March, companies began front-loading inventory.
According to Uber Freight, the automotive, food, steel, aluminum, kitchen appliances, paper and air conditioning parts industries ratcheted up shipments, as those goods come from Mexico. Trucking jobs surged in March, likely the result of businesses frontloading inventories.
All of those gains could be erased in April. On April 5, a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries and a higher tax for dozens of countries went into effect, setting off a full-blown trade war with China. On April 15, the Canadian Trucking Alliance said nearly 70% of carriers north of the border have canceled or paused shipments destined for the U.S.
Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached nearly $132 billion in February. That was an increase of 2% compared to the previous year but was down 2% compared to January. Canadian freight was up 2% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight also rose by 2%.
By weight, freight crossing the borders decreased by 3% compared to February 2024 and dropped sharply, by 12%, compared to the previous month.
In January, cross-border freight was up for all modes except vessel (down 23%) and rail (down 12%). Pipeline experienced the largest increase (23%), followed by airfreight (5%) and trucks (4%). LL
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