Thousands of trucking jobs were added to the economy in April, building on sustained growth in the spot market. Is the freight recession finally in the rearview mirror?
For four years, the trucking industry has been battling overcapacity and low demand, sending rates on a downward spiral. Capacity peaked in October 2022 with approximately 1,588,600 trucking jobs in the books, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Since then, the industry has been shedding excess capacity. There have been fewer trucking jobs in every month but a handful since February 2023. In February of this year, there were 1,465,100 truck driving jobs, the fewest since September 2020 after the pandemic wiped out nearly 85,000 jobs in a single month.
While recent federal government policies, including those related to English proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs, contributed to some of those losses, good ol’ fashioned market forces drove out most. About 55,000 trucking jobs were eliminated in 2023, largely due to Yellow Corp. folding. That was followed by a 41,000-job loss in 2024 and nearly 28,000 lost last year.
Spot rates have been reflecting tightening capacity. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, spot rates have been rising consistently for about six months.
Meanwhile, carriers have begun adding capacity after years of reducing the number of drivers.
According to the latest federal government employment report, more than 4,000 trucking jobs were added in April. That marks just the sixth increase in nearly 40 months, and the largest since September 2023 when 6,000 trucking jobs were added.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told Land Line that the surge in trucking jobs indicates “growing confidence across the industry.” As peak season approaches, even stronger rates could encourage more hiring.
“Carriers that strategically add capacity now will be well-positioned to capitalize on what could become the strongest rate environment the industry has seen since the pandemic-era surge,” Spencer said. “As shippers begin reevaluating contract allocations, those prepared to scale efficiently will have a meaningful opportunity to strengthen customer relationships and capture additional market share.”
However, skyrocketing diesel prices could undermine any gains from the spot market. In March FTR Transportation Intelligence’s trucking conditions index was -1.11, the first time it dipped into the negatives in seven months. FTR noted that the despite “a huge hit from fuel costs,” the slightly negative reading “highlights the strength of freight-related factors, especially rates.”
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, was more cautiously optimistic about an upcycle.
“Carriers of all stripes are in store for a strong year from a rates perspective, but for much of the market, the recovery remains driven by the combination of very tight capacity and disruption,” Vise said. “We are still skeptical that van freight will benefit much from volume growth, but the open deck sector is benefiting not only from very tight capacity but also from an ongoing surge in data center construction and a modest improvement in manufacturing output.”
Across all industries, about 115,000 jobs were created in April, nearly double the projected 65,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. Not seasonally adjusted, the transportation sector unemployment rate sits at 3.9%. LL
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