Freight market trends appeared to finally be moving in a positive direction in recent weeks.
However, it remained unclear whether these indicators were signs of a true recovery or due to factors such as severe winter weather.
The February OOIDA Foundation freight market outlook said that overall demand is firming, capacity is tightening and rates were up. Additionally, operating costs are slowing.
“There are certainly positive indicators in the market, but meaningful headwinds remain,” the Foundation said. “This suggests the recent improvement is being driven more by tightening capacity than by a broad-based demand recovery.”
Despite significant rate increases in January, it’s too early to call for an end to the freight recession, according to the Foundation report.
Which of these trends are you watching most closely?👀 pic.twitter.com/EHbnND0xif
— DAT Freight & Analytics (@datfreightteam) February 24, 2026
Van market
Demand increased in four of six regions, as did spot rates.
“Underlying pressures – especially continued weaknesses in manufacturing – remain in place, suggesting the turnaround is being driven by capacity shifts rather than a true market recovery,” the Foundation said.
Grocery wholesalers drove the increase in the dry van composite index. Food manufacturing and miscellaneous durable goods wholesalers were also up.
Flatbed market
All six regions reported higher demand, with the Northeast leading.
Rates were also elevated, with the largest gain in the Southeast.
Increases across flatbed were driven by cement and concrete products and construction machinery manufacturing.
Reefer market
A rise in freight and a drop in available trucks led to higher demand.
The South Central region increased by 30%, the largest increase among the regions.
For the third consecutive month, rates increased, are higher year-over-year and above the three-year moving average.
Food manufacturing and grocery and related product wholesalers are the primary reasons for the increases.
Trucking market
The Cass Shipment Index, which includes data from all domestic freight modes, fell month over month and is down year over year.
The Truckload Linehaul Index, which measures rate fluctuations, increased for the fifth consecutive month.
“Fleets are getting excited that the long-awaited recovery is here,” Cass said. “Even 2% contract rate increases are a relief after four years of nothing or worse. While near-term reversion from the weather may slow the trend, we expect tighter capacity to lead to moderate truckload rate increases in 2026.”
Seasonally-adjusted estimated for-hire carrier entries mostly aligned with expectations for January.
The industry has experienced a net loss of carriers every month since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cost pressures have moderated, but overall operating costs remain incredibly high by historical standards.
Used truck sales fell short.
“The drop was larger than expected based on historical seasonality,” Steve Tam, vice president at ACT Research, said. “It seems reasonable to assume the numerous severe winter storms that pummeled much of the country may also have kept buyers out of used truck lots during the month.”
Freight market
U.S. manufacturing returned to expansion territory for the first time in 11 months.
New orders and backlogs also expanded, while customers’ inventories fell.
Growth was reported in nine of 17 manufacturing industries.
The housing market was down for the 12th consecutive month.
Fewer home builders cut prices in February than in January.
Sales incentives exceeded 60% for the 11th consecutive month.
Despite consecutive weeks of year-over-year growth in late January, C.H. Robinson expects intermodal demand in 2026 to track the broader freight market and remain only modestly positive. LL
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