Refreshed employment numbers from the federal government reveal that the truck driver purge over the last two years was larger than previously reported, which could be good news for those who survived it.
For nearly four years, truck drivers have suffered through a freight recession that has depressed rates. Post-pandemic economic activity boosted rates, leading to a surge in new carriers and drivers. That ultimately led to a driver glut, putting downward pressure on rates.
Previous government data put peak trucking employment at nearly 1,588,000 in July 2022. Since then, the industry has been purging itself of excess drivers, but it never seemed to be enough. More than 50,000 drivers were eliminated in 2023, largely the result of the Yellow collapse. An additional 18,000 jobs were lost in 2024.
Last year, the federal government implemented new policies that it said could displace up to 200,000 truck drivers. That included new non-domiciled CDL rules and enforcement of English proficiency regulations.
However, last month’s federal employment report showed a net loss of only 3,500 truck drivers last year. What happened to the purge?
On Wednesday, Feb. 11, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the first employment report for 2026, which included revisions to the data for the past five years. Those revisions tell a completely different story that may give truck drivers renewed optimism for 2026.
Revised employment data reveal that 28,000 truck drivers were eliminated from the industry last year, eight times what was initially reported. In 2024, there were 41,000 fewer drivers, a loss that is more than double previous reports.
How many truck drivers has the industry purged itself since the peak in 2022? Old data showed a loss of 75,000 trucking jobs from July 2022 to December 2025. New data moved peak employment to nearly 1,589,000 in October 2022. There are about 122,000 fewer truck drivers since then, nearly 50,000 more drivers than previously thought.
Revised numbers suggest the freight recession has had a greater impact on trucking jobs than prior estimates indicated. While enforcement of federal trucking rules could partially explain last year’s drop in drivers, it does not explain the previous year’s much larger decrease.
That could be good news for the truck drivers still out on the road. Although recent rate increases may be attributed to inclement weather, the longer-term trend may be due to reduced capacity. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, suggested the current capacity situation could make rates more sensitive.
“While other leading indicators already suggest larger and more sustained disruptions are likely in 2026, these revisions provide strong supporting evidence for that outlook,” Spencer said. Storms and other disruptions in recent years have not produced the same level of rate volatility and capacity shortages seen during this year’s winter storms. The capacity environment remains highly sensitive to disruption, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the next inflationary cycle is approaching.”
According to Truckstop.com, total spot rates for 2026 are well above last year’s levels and nearing the five-year average.
“The total market spot rate did not quite match the rate at the end of 2025, but dry van spot rates surpassed year-end rates, reaching the highest level since the end of 2022,” Truckstop.com states in its 2026 Week 5 report.
DAT Solutions is reporting similar numbers. Numbers for the week of Feb. 2 show spot truck posts are down 5%. Meanwhile, van, reefer and flatbed rates are up 2%, 3% and 0.4%, respectively. LL
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