Most outlooks on trucking and trucking-related markets haven’t held much promise lately.
However, one area has shown positive signs in recent months.
Fuel prices have held steady or dropped in some regions despite tariffs, governmental policies and ongoing international conflicts.
“The good news for consumers is that we are generally seeing lower prices at the pump, and we expect gasoline prices to keep trending lower through next year,” said Steven Nalley, acting administrator for the Energy Information Administration.
In its September short-term energy outlook, EIA is forecasting the national average price per gallon of diesel to drop below $3.70 by the end of 2025. That average is expected to decline to $3.47 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026 and $3.35 by the second quarter. A slight increase is forecast for the end of next year, but the national diesel average is expected to remain below $3.60 per gallon.
Fuel reports are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.
We forecast significant decreases in oil and gasoline prices this year and in 2026, consistent with our previous forecasts. #STEO pic.twitter.com/DrHBGEJi5x
— EIA (@EIAgov) September 9, 2025
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 82 | 81 | 68 | 51 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.3 |
| U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 12 | 15 | 16 |
Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. EIA noted by early 2026, the price per barrel will be down to $50.
“The (crude oil) price forecast is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production,” EIA said. “We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026.”
Additionally, rising natural gas prices combined with falling oil prices will result in crude oil trading at its lowest premium to natural gas since 2005. Drilling activity is expected to center on natural gas-producing regions in 2026.
EIA also noted its September forecast was completed before OPEC+ announced plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. LL
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