Now may not seem like a good time to be ordering new trucks. But come this time next year, you may wish you had placed an order before 2024 expired.
A complex storm is brewing south of the border with all kinds of moving parts. The Canadian economy remains sluggish and now faces the very real threat of massive tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration.
The freight market has finally shed most of its excess capacity and, though it’s still shaky, appears to be in the early stages of a recovery.
Adding to fleets’ concerns over the economic malaise are worries about the roll-out of the Model Year (MY) 2027 trucks. That’s a mere 12 months, hence, Jan. 1, 2026. MY2027 trucks are expected to come with the steepest MY-over-MY price increase ever. Ever.
And nobody wants to talk about how much that increase will be.
TruckNews.com canvassed the OEMs in November for comments on the pending price hike and their emissions reduction strategies for MY2027. One declined to comment outright. One never even responded to our emails. Of the responses we did receive to our queries, several indicated they could not comment on specifics regarding their 2027 product strategy or vehicle pricing.
“While we cannot comment on specifics around our product strategy towards the EPA27 requirements, as you’ve seen with our CARB-compliant 2024 engine, there will be enhancements to the exhaust aftertreatment system and within the engine itself,” said Volvo Trucks North America. “As we’ve said, these regulations are extremely stringent, so it will take working within many areas to achieve compliance.”
International Motors was slightly more forthcoming. “The International S13 Integrated Powertrain will mainly remain the same through the 2027 emissions rollout. However, rather than having to add components to reach the NOx requirements, International will remove components and reduce complexity, which, in turn, drives uptime for our customers.”
OEMs silent on strategy
A few of our favorite truck makers have dropped hints about their efforts to meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s heavy-duty vehicle regulations for MY2027 heavy-duty trucks. So far, only Cummins has offered reporters what could be called a deep dive into its emissions strategy.
EPA27 represents the largest downward push on emissions since 2010. The 2027 standards cut NOx to 0.035 grams (35 milligrams) per brake horsepower/hour. And particulate matter (PM) has been chopped to 0.005 grams 5 milligrams); a 90% reduction since 1998.
Along with the cuts to criteria pollutants (PM and NOx) come mandated reductions of various greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2).
This lack of transparency is keeping some fleet owners and managers awake at night.
Bruce Stockton, truck maintenance consultant and current chief operating officer (COO) of Wilson Logistics, based in Stafford, Mo., told TruckNews.com he still hasn’t been provided with a clear explanation of how OEMs plan to meet the ’27 standards.
“We’re worried about the unknown,” he says. “Even though Cummins is touting that they have their solution — and they’ve been pretty transparent about it — we haven’t heard about anybody really running it yet, even in field tests. Maybe a few of the big guys are. I don’t know. All that silence kind of leads me to think that maybe they’re all hoping [that] after the election, there will be some retraction of these standards. I don’t personally believe that will happen because it’s never happened in the past,” he added.
Stockton said that prior to the roll-out of the MY2007 trucks, with their then-new DPFs, his fleet (CFI at the time) had MY2007 engines in two trucks as early as calendar year 2004.
Trucks will cost a lot more
Readers will have probably heard by now that trucks will cost about US$20,000 more as of Jan. 1, 2026.
During a media briefing back in the summer, Volvo Trucks North America’s vice-president of strategy, marketing and brand management, Magnus Koeck, said as much.
“A new Class 8 truck for 2027 will cost $20,000 more than a comparable model does today,” he told journalists. “That’s why we expect a massive prebuy in 2026. We see signs it has already begun.”
Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America, echoed Koeck at the recent American Trucking Associations’ annual meeting in the fall.
“We’re in that $20,000 range [increased price for EPA27]. It’s the technology, but it’s also the warranty we have to put on it. That’s a big piece of it,” he told reporters.
At current exchange rates, that’s $28,000 Canadian. And who can predict where our rapidly falling dollar will be relative to the U.S. this time next year.
According to one southern Ontario-based truck dealer, after the 2% model-year change-over hike, a new on-highway truck in this market in 2025 will top $200,000.
“For a highway tractor with a sleeper you’re probably looking at on average, $225,000 to $235,000,” he told TruckNews.com.
The $20,000 EPA price increases don’t even hit until next January. And that $20K figure is still just a guess.
Another expert, a sales manager at a Chicago-area dealer who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to comment publicly, said the increase would likely be even higher.
“There’s really no formal figure right now, but I imagine we’re all going to be around 30 grand,” he said. “I think the minimum price on a 100-truck (sleeper) order from my company would be in the US$185-$190K range.”
It’s easy to understand why truck buyers would have difficulty getting their heads around a cost increase of that magnitude.
“Fleets know it’s coming, but they just don’t believe it. That’s probably the best way to put it,” he said. “Over time, including two model-year changes (2026 and 2027), we’ll be up maybe US$35,000 from current pricing. The big fleets and the private fleets understand, but the small to mid-sized fleets do not believe me when I share that.”
What happened to the pre-buy?
Many analysts had expected orders for MY2026 trucks to be pouring in by now, but that hasn’t happened. Obviously, everyone is concerned about the whopping price hikes coming our way for MY2027.
But coming off a lackluster year in the freight market, coupled with a soft economy and with relatively high interest rates hanging over their heads, fleets just don’t have the cash to tie up in a big truck order.
“We were anticipating the pre-buy to really start happening in Q4 of this year, and it’s not,” said Mack’s Randall. “It’s probably [going to begin] in the second half of next year (2025). I would tell you that 2026 is going to be a big year and it might be a capacity constrained year.”
By the time the OEMs get done with allocation, built slots are going to be tighter than they are right now. In a good year, we can produce about 300,000 trucks. That means a good number of you will be left on the sidelines, and possibly the first guy on the block with a new MY2027 truck.
Buying strategy
Should you jump in on the pre-buy? It certainly looks compelling when considering the pending price increases for MY2027 equipment. And who isn’t a tiny bit worried about the maintenance implications and reliability?
Consultant Stockton says a lot depends on the average age of the fleet.
“Fleets with young average age are in good shape. Fleets with 24- to 36-month average ages or greater, will find it difficult to absorb the additional maintenance costs, once their fleets are out of warranty,” he said. “Young fleets can make it through 2026 and 2027, and probably start buying again in late 2027, getting back on a more regular cycle in 2028, 2029 and 2030, before the next round of emissions rules kicks in. Middle-aged (34 months) or older (48 months) aged fleets are likely where we’ll see the capacity reduction and shrinkage come from, and that should return the market and freight rates to profitable standards.”
Craig Germain, COO, XTL Transport, speaking at the Truckload Carriers Association’s Bridging Border Barriers conference in November, said he plans to stay the course with regular buying cycles.
“We will continue to renew our fleet. We have a disciplined replacement cycle, and…we will not do a forward buy,” he said. “We’ll stick to our normal cycles and hopefully the industry [shippers] will be prepared to pay for the new gains from an emissions perspective.”
Steve Brookshaw, senior executive vice-president, TFI International, speaking at the same event, said these emissions systems changes are something we have to embrace as an industry — painful though they may be.
“We’re a free cash flow business and [pre-buying] would take up free cash flow, so we’ll go along as we normally do,” he told the audience. “The whole environmental improvement we have to make in our industry – someone made it an event. It’s a journey.”
The trump card
There’s still another card to be played in this spectacle: U.S. president-elect’s threatened tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, where a good portion of our heavy trucks are built. We don’t yet know if the tariffs will apply to trucks, but if they do, $250,000 might seem like a bargain.
The tariffs may also apply to goods exported from Canada, which could have a significant effect on freight movements between the two countries. Such a move would hurt Canadian carriers the most.
Some might be inclined to say EPA27 could be the least of our worries.
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