Reasons for freight market optimism have materialized in recent weeks.
The Total Spot Market Cycle Indicator moved into positive territory for the first time since April 2025, rates were up overall and capacity has tightened, according to the OOIDA Foundation’s January freight market update.
Despite this progress, further analysis shows it’s still too early to declare an end to the freight recession.
U.S. manufacturing continues to contract, while data shows further weakness in production and inventories.
“We believe the rate gains reflect a mix of seasonality, weather disruptions and tightening capacity,” the Foundation said in its freight market report. “Recent improvements are being driven more by shifts in capacity than a true market recovery.”
Van market
All six regions reported increased demand, with the West Coast reporting the largest increase.
Spot rates also increased by the largest amount on the West Coast and were up in all but two regions.
Flatbed market
Demand rose in most regions. The lone decrease was in the Mountain Central region.
Rates were up across the board and increased year-over-year for the 10th consecutive month.
Reefer market
A sharp rise in demand, unusual for this time of year, was reported in five of six regions. The most favorable ratios were in the Northeast and West Coast regions.
Rates were similar to demand, with increases in most regions. The highest increases were in the Southeast and West Coast regions.
Trucking market
The Cass Shipment Index fell month-over-month and is down year-over-year.
“For-hire volumes were clearly soft in Q4 for a number of reasons,” Cass said. “An active winter is freezing out some freight capacity, supporting the strongest run of spot rates in four years in the four weeks through mid-January. The retrenchment has begun in the dry van market, but reefer spot markets remain particularly tight in January.”
Seasonally-adjusted estimated for-hire carrier entries defied our expectations. However, entry levels have largely moved sideways since December 2023, and the industry has seen a net loss of carriers since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The Trucking Operating Cost Index, which tracks month-to-month changes in major costs, remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic years.
The used truck market outpaced historic averages, rising for the first time in five months.
Freight market
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the 10th consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The New Orders Index also declined.
Additionally, backlogs increased and customers’ inventories fell.
The Housing Market Index marked eleven consecutive months of decline.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, 40% of builders reported cutting prices and sales incentives reached the highest percentage post-COVID.
Intermodal demand is expected to remain flat or modestly positive in the first half of 2026, C.H. Robinson said. LL
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