Illinois is a NCAA Tournament lock. What seed? -

After the massacre in Madison Square Garden, things were looking bleak for the Illini. While they were still projected as safely in the tournament, there was some fear that the team was broken and would end the year with a whimper, which would have put them on the bubble.

Instead, two 20-point beatdowns of Iowa and Michigan have the Illini safely in the tournament, projected as a 7-seed right now. Their possibilities to move up or down at this point range from a 5-seed, if they can win out until the Big Ten Tournament final, to at worst a 9-seed, if they lose to both Purdue and their first opponent in the Big Ten tournament.

Elsewhere in the country, as we enter the last week of the regular season, attention turns to potential bid thieves on the bubble. Last year, the bubble was set on fire with six bid thieves winning their conference tournaments who would otherwise not have made it.

Where should you be looking for potential bid thieves? In the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and Big 12, it would be pretty shocking if any team not already in the tournament was able to run the gauntlet and steal a bid. The Big East almost fits that description, although Villanova and Eric Dixon do pose a threat.

In the WCC, San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Oregon State have already shown the ability to beat conference favorites Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. In the American Conference, Memphis is a tourney lock, but North Texas and UAB could knock them off. In the Mountain West, New Mexico and Utah State are fairly safe while San Diego State and Boise State could see their bubble chances take a hit if Colorado State, UNLV or Nevada steal a bid. VCU could probably still get into the tournament even if they get upset by George Mason, Dayton, or Saint Joseph’s in the Atlantic 10 final. Drake’s case is a little more tenuous, as although they are above the bubble right now, losing in the MVC final to Bradley or Northern Iowa might directly steal their spot, just like they did to Indiana State last year.

South Region (Atlanta)

Auburn (Lexington)
Saint John’s (Providence)
Wisconsin (Milwaukee)
Texas A&M (Seattle)
Louisville
Memphis
Ole Miss
Gonzaga
Creighton
VCU
West Virginia
UCSD
Grand Canyon
Chattanooga

NCAA Basketball: Florida Atlantic at Memphis

Notes on the Region:

The Providence pod gets a trio of teams who all try to play similarly: win by getting extra possessions on turnovers. St. John’s, Ole Miss, and VCU are all top 30 in the country in forcing turnovers, at 18% turnover rate or better.

The Auburn freight train will get a high pedigree opponent in round 2, with both Gonzaga and Creighton being preseason top 15 teams that have disappointed.

An ex-Illini player will get the chance to knock off Wisconsin in round two. Dain Dainja loves March, as he is getting hot at the right time once again, averaging 21 points and 12.7 rebounds over his past three games. He’ll have to beat his ex-teammates (and coach) from West Virginia in round 1, with Amani Hansberry likely going relying on practice reps from last year to slow down the dancing bear.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Alabama (Lexington)
Michigan State (Cleveland)
Iowa State (Milwaukee)
Saint Mary’s (Seattle)
Maryland
Mizzou
Mississippi State
Kansas
UConn
San Diego State
North Carolina/Boise State
Xavier/Oklahoma
Akron
Lipscomb

NCAA Basketball: Kansas at Colorado — Hunter Dickinson finds himself on an underperforming team for the 4th year in a row

Notes on the Region:

The 8-9 matchup in the Midwest is even higher profile than in the South, with Kansas and UConn squaring off in a preseason top-3 matchup. For Kansas, this would truly be unprecedented territory if they don’t turn their season around fast. They are already almost guaranteed the lowest seed of the Bill Self era (he’s never been lower than a 4), but the last time they were an 8-seed was the 1999-00 season, and the last time they were lower than that was 1988-89, in Roy Williams’ first season (the last time they missed tourney).

North Carolina, Boise State, and Xavier all move just inside the bracket after strong weeks. The state of Ohio in particular will be sweating out Selection Sunday, with Xavier, Ohio State and Cincinnati all sitting just above or below the cut line.

Michigan State and Iowa State would be an entertaining Sweet Sixteen matchup, with both teams boasting strong defenses and deep guard rotations. The bracket in general is filled with more defensively inclined teams (Michigan State, Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, Maryland, Kansas, and San Diego State all top 15 in defensive efficiency) who will have to try to slow down the offensive juggernauts of Alabama and Mizzou (3rd and 4th in efficiency per Barttorvik.com).

West (San Francisco)

Houston (Wichita)
Florida (Cleveland)
Clemson (Providence)
Purdue (Denver)
Kentucky
Arizona
Illinois
UCLA
Utah State
Baylor
Indiana
Liberty
High Point
UNC Wilmington

Notes on the Region:

Moving out of the 8/9 Hell gives Illinois a much more favorable site and matchups than last week. First- and second-round games played in Cleveland would likely have more Illini fans than Baylor or Gator fans, although with the Gators it might be hard to tell, just a general sea of orange. Baylor has been a big disappointment this year, and has struggled mightily in its marquee games, going 2-9 against teams in the top 35 in NET (Illinois is 6-7 in those games). Illinois and Florida would pit two of the best rebounding teams in the country against each other. Morez Johnson being back and scooping endless rebounds would be a must to be competitive in this one.

In the Sweet Sixteen in San Francisco, Illinois could run into another orange squad with the Clemson Tigers. They are a mirror image from us from the three-point line: They have the 12th best percentage in the country, while being fairly selective of when to shoot it. We shoot the fifth-most threes in the country, while only making them 30.8% of the time. That leads to lots of offensive rebounds for us, and Clemson is not good on the defensive glass while we dominate offensive rebounds. Which strategy will work better: higher efficiency or higher volume?

On the other side of the bracket, Houston has swapped places with Florida on the 1 and 2-lines. Houston could be the grim reaper for the Big Ten, potentially taking out UCLA, Purdue, and Illinois in three straight rounds.

East (Newark)

Duke (Raleigh)
Tennessee (Raleigh)
Texas Tech (Wichita)
Michigan (Denver)
Marquette
Oregon
BYU
Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Georgia
Drake
McNeese
Yale
Arkansas State

NCAA Basketball: Illinois at Michigan — Danny Hyena couldn’t scavenge any easy buckets against the Illini

Notes on the Region:

Georgia is the biggest riser this week, moving up 12 spots on the S-line from out of the bracket to a 10-seed after wins against Florida and Texas. They get a matchup with another late riser, as BYU is riding a six-game winning streak in the Big 12.

Danny Wolf gets the pleasure of being knocked out by the team he abandoned in the transfer portal, as Yale looks to repeat last year’s feat of knocking off a 4-seed. That whole Denver pod looks like a prime place to pick a Cinderella in the Sweet Sixteen, as McNeese is a dangerous 12-seed for Marquette.

Duke and Tennessee get some in-person scouting ahead of a potential Elite Eight matchup, as both play their first two rounds in nearby Raleigh. Vanderbilt has been a bit of a giant slayer this year, having knocked off Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky and most recently Mizzou, but Duke in Raleigh is likely a step too far for them.