Embracing uncertainty in uncertain times while paying attention to trends and outliers will help companies prepare for the future.
Jennifer Brace, chief futurist at Ford Motor Company, doesn’t have a crystal ball. Her mantra is focus on preparation, not prediction.
“Nobody can tell what the future holds, but we can look for signals of change, trends, and uncertainties that we want to start paying attention to,” she told attendees at the Green Truck Summit in Indianapolis, Ind.
When something sparks a gut reaction of “that sounds silly, crazy or will never happen,” keep an eye on it and think about it. This was the message during her keynote address.
Some outliers may not add up to anything, but others become very disruptive. About 15 years ago, the initial reaction to Uber was skeptical. Who would want to get into the backseat of a stranger’s car? The rideshare app has disrupted the taxi industry, the way payments are made, and location-based services used.
Balancing provocation with plausibility
The flip side of trends are uncertainties, which are not spoken about because they make people uncomfortable. “If you’re not considering uncertainties, you’re missing half of the puzzle,” she said. “Whether we like it or not, we don’t have control over these, but we’re going to have to react to them.”
Brace emphasized the need to balance provocation with plausibility. The idea is to get folks thinking beyond the present, because things can change quickly.
Tracking trends gives indicators for the future. They must have longevity – Brace’s team looks for three to five years. She said that for something to be called a trend, there must be confidence it will continue. It then becomes a good indicator of change for the future.
The work truck industry must pay attention to social, technological, economic, environmental and political categories. What’s happening outside the industry might have an impact. It could also affect the expectations of customers.
Extreme weather
Keeping an eye on the weather also helps. Extreme weather events, those that cost at least US$1 billion to repair damages, are making headlines. Last year there were 27 such incidents in the U.S., causing damage worth US$183 billion. In 1980, three such events were reported.
There were many work trucks cleaning up after these disasters, creating business opportunities, Brace noted.
Also, only one in five businesses have an adaptation plan for extreme weather. “If you haven’t prepared a plan, you should start thinking about it, because it’s probably not a matter of if but when,” she advised.
Opportunity to pivot
She also expected the growth of connected technology in vehicles. There are going to be more opportunities to utilize data to help make better decisions to improve efficiency.
Start paying attention to cycles early so that there is an opportunity to pivot and change plans, Brace said. By putting together trends and uncertainties, it is possible to imagine multiple versions of the future. Then, consider if your plan is robust in each of those versions and seek out blind spots. This gets you ahead of the game.
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