The rate of electric vehicle adoption is expected to level off this year amid uncertainty created by Trump administration policies, including rolling back incentives and emission standards that propelled electric vehicle sales.
According to a J.D. Power report, the electric vehicle retail share is expected to stay at 9% throughout 2025. That’s despite rapid growth in the past few years. In 2021, EV sales accounted for only 3.5% of all vehicle sales. In just two years, that share jumped to 8.4%.
Most of that growth has been seen in the “mainstream” market. Electric vehicles were initially offered by more premium brands, but in recent years, manufacturers like Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai and Kia have placed a higher emphasis on that market.
However, electric vehicle sales are expected to pick back up. The report projects that sales will increase to nearly 12% next year and 26% by 2030. Although a big jump, that is far below the 50% sales target set by former President Joe Biden in an executive order signed in his first year in office.
California still reigns supreme in total electric vehicle adoption. However, sales dipped slightly in the Golden State last year. On the other hand, there was significant sales growth in New York, Florida, Colorado, Michigan and Texas.
Trump puts roadblocks in front of electric vehicles
President Donald Trump’s approach to climate, economic and infrastructure policies is behind the expected hesitation to buy electric vehicles. J.D. Power anticipates those policies will disincentivize Americans to replace internal combustion engine vehicles with cleaner technology.
On Day 1 of his second term, Trump signed an executive order establishing a policy “to eliminate the ‘electric vehicle (EV) mandate.’” That prompted Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to direct the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to roll back stricter fuel economy standards set by Biden.
On Friday, Feb. 14, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it will let Congress decide the fate of three California vehicle emission rules: Advanced Clean Cars II, Advanced Clean Trucks and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus regulation. Those rules were expected to significantly thrust electric vehicle adoption by requiring a certain percentage of sales over several years.
Trump’s executive order also called for the pausing of funding for “electric vehicle charging stations made available through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program and the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Discretionary Grant Program.” Those Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act programs allocated $7.5 billion to build out a nationwide network of 500,000 electric vehicle chargers. A lack of charging stations has been a major pain point for electric vehicle adoption.
Another concern among consumers is the price of electric vehicles, which tends to be higher than that of internal combustion engine vehicles. Since 2009, there has been a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of a new electric vehicle. On Feb. 12, Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., introduced the Eliminating Lavish Incentives to Electric (ELITE) Vehicles Act, which would repeal that tax credit. According to J.D. Power, those incentives have made the average cost of electric vehicles $1,000 less than that of gas-powered vehicles.
Tariffs could potentially increase the already high cost of electric vehicles. Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada are currently on hold. A 10% tariff on Chinese imports is in place. And last week, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. LL
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