Significant uncertainties continue to influence the EIA short-term energy outlook.
Accordingly, EIA has made notable adjustments in its October outlook due to those uncertainties as well as recent announcements.
“The October forecast was completed before the announcement of the fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery, which accounts for 17% of California’s refinery capacity,” EIA said. “Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil ports have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted. In addition, uncertainty persists about how long China will continue to purchase oil to build its domestic inventories, a trend that EIA believes has propped up oil prices recently.”
EIA does expect increased production of crude oil and petroleum products through 2026. Despite announced increases, OPEC+ production will remain below targets and prevent inventory builds from growing too quickly. This will push Brent crude oil prices down to $52 per barrel in 2026, according to EIA.
U.S. crude oil production will decline from a record high (13.6 million barrels per day) in July but will still average 13.5 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026, EIA said.
| U.S. energy market indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $69 | $52 |
| Retail diesel price (dollars per gallon) | $3.76 | $3.67 | $3.40 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $3.40 | $3.90 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 15 | 16 |
Diesel prices offer promise through the rest of this year and into 2026.
EIA forecasts a national average diesel price per gallon of $3.75 in the fourth quarter of 2025. That average is expected to drop 20-plus cents to $3.49 per gallon by the first quarter of 2026. Diesel will continue to fall and average $3.32 per gallon in the second quarter of next year.
U.S. average retail prices for October 6, 2025:
⛽️ Regular grade #gasoline: $3.12/gallon
⛽️ On-highway #diesel: $3.71/gallon #gaspricesHistorical data is available on our website: 🔽https://t.co/NIJ3L1odNq
— EIA (@EIAgov) October 7, 2025
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available online. LL
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