
Downward pressure on oil prices is expected with the Energy Information Administration forecasting an increase in global as well as U.S. oil production.
In its January short-term energy outlook, EIA has forecasted an average Brent crude oil price of $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel in 2026.
“The unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and strong growth in oil production outside of OPEC+ results in global oil production growing in our forecast,” EIA said.
EIA’s forecast includes an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in the production of global liquid fuels in 2025, followed by a 1.5 million barrel-per-day increase in 2026.
“Although we forecast OPEC+ will increase production, we expect the group will produce less crude oil than stated in its most recent production target in an effort to avoid significant inventory builds,” EIA said.
U.S. crude oil production
A record 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 will increase to 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, according to EIA. That number is expected to grow to 13.6 million in 2026, with the Permian region accounting for more than 50% of that production. Growth in the Permian region will offset contraction in other regions, EIA said.
Overview | ||||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) | 82 | 81 | 74 | 66 |
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.6 |
Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) | 2.50 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.
Fuel prices
After a 16-cent drop in the national average diesel price per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2024, a steady increase in the average diesel price is expected in 2025.
That average is forecast to be $3.57 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025 and to increase each subsequent quarter, averaging $3.76 per gallon by the end of 2025.
In its most recent weekly fuel report, EIA shows a national average price per gallon of $3.60.
Fuel prices are tracked daily on this Land Line resources page.
Other highlights
EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026, while natural gas prices also are forecasted to increase.
For the first time, EIA is predicting renewable energy sources will contribute one-quarter of the electricity generation in the U.S. in 2025.
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available here. LL
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