In its October short-term energy outlook, released after Hurricane Helene and prior to Hurricane Milton making landfall, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting winter heating costs to be largely comparable to last winter.
However, one region where this may not be the case is in the Midwest where natural gas prices are expected to increase by approximately 11%.
The Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose by 15% and EIA expects that price to continue rising through the end of 2024 and into 2025 as liquefied natural gas exports, a component of total natural gas demand, increase.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about the weather over an entire season—not to mention uncertainty over commodity prices,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.
High winds, flooding, and storm surge from Hurricane #Milton might affect energy infrastructure such as:
🔵 Power plants
🔵 Power transmission and distribution lines
🔵 Fuel terminalsPlease be safe, everyone.
▶️ https://t.co/7OTlQC9Htj pic.twitter.com/sPr17jZIu9
— EIA (@EIAgov) October 9, 2024
EIA is reducing its forecasted price for Brent crude oil through the end of 2025. It’s not expected to average $78 per barrel next year, $7 less than EIA’s previous forecast.
Crude oil production in the U.S. will hit a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, EIA says.
“Although we reduced our crude oil price forecast, crude oil prices have risen in recent days because of escalating conflict in the Middle East, raising the possibility of oil supply disruptions and further crude oil price increases,” EIA said.
Lower crude oil prices also mean a dip in the expected price of petroleum products. Of those products, propane saw the largest forecast drop from 84 cents per gallon last month to 72 cents per gallon this month.
Diesel is forecast to average $3.50 per gallon in 2025, a 5% decrease from the previous EIA short-term outlook.
| Notable Forecast Changes | 2024 | 2025 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) | $81 | $78 |
| Previous forecast | $83 | $84 |
| Percentage change | -2.3% | -7.7% |
| Wholesale diesel price (dollars per gallon) | $2.40 | $2.30 |
| Previous forecast | $2.50 | $2.50 |
| Percentage change | -3.0% | -8.4% |
| Mt. Belvieu propane spot price (dollars per gallon) | $0.80 | $0.70 |
| Previous forecast | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Percentage change | -4.8% | -14.7% |
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.
The current STEO forecast was released October 8.
The previous STEO forecast was released September 10.
The full short-term energy outlook is available on the EIA website. LL
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